It is shaping up to look like a significant disruption *unless* miners comply with BIP110. If they ignore BIP110, or if there is a popular URSF, they may lose 8% or more of their users. Right now the best way to get 0 disruption looks like for miners to, perhaps begrudgingly, start enforcing BIP110 just to keep the network united.

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For sure, if no URSF ever materializes, miners could very well just collectively choose to start enforcing BIP110. Even better would be if Core just endosed BIP110 outright; or, possibly even came up with their own acceptable alternative. None of the above are my basecase, however. I'm not exactly sure what % (or possibly other metric) would be considered a credible threat in the minds of the anti-BIP110 crowd; but, I would fully expect a URSF if/when that line is eventually crossed - which I suppose might not even happen until well after a potential chain-split. The path to the least disruption may very well be to play chicken with the BIP110 8%