From Trey Sellers (Unchained) on X:
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The source of the selling that started on Oct 10:
The big story connecting MSCI (the major index provider) to the Bitcoin market revolves around a proposed rule change that could exclude companies heavily loaded with digital assets from key equity benchmarks.
MSCI's Proposed Rule Change
A preliminary list of ~38 affected companies is circulating, and feedback from investors reportedly leans toward exclusion.MSCI's Proposed Rule ChangeMSCI is consulting on treating "digital asset treasury companies" (firms where crypto/Bitcoin makes up ≥50% of total assets) more like investment funds than operating businesses. Investment funds are ineligible for MSCI's mainstream stock indexes (e.g., MSCI USA, MSCI World, Nasdaq 100 inclusions).This directly targets companies like:
🔸Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy, ticker MSTR) — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with ~650,000 BTC
🔸Some crypto miners (Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, etc.)
A preliminary list of ~38 affected companies is circulating, and feedback from investors reportedly leans toward exclusion.
Timeline and Potential Impact
MSCI's consultation ends soon, with a final decision expected around January 15, 2026.If exclusion happens:
🔸Passive funds/ETFs tracking MSCI indexes would be forced to sell holdings.
🔸JPMorgan estimates ~$2.8 billion in outflows from MSCI-tracked funds alone for Strategy/MSTR.
🔸Up to $9–11 billion total if Nasdaq, Russell, and others follow suit.
Effect on Bitcoin Price Action
Strategy (MSTR) has been a popular leveraged Bitcoin proxy for traditional investors — its inclusion in major indexes funneled indirect BTC exposure into pensions, 401(k)s, and broad-market ETFs for years.The looming exclusion risk has already crushed MSTR's premium:
🔸The stock is down >60% from its November 2024 peak and trading barely above the spot value of its Bitcoin holdings (mNAV ~1.1× or lower).
🔸MSTR has underperformed Bitcoin itself by a wide margin in recent months, largely because of this “index overhang” rather than pure BTC price moves.
Broader Bitcoin market pressure comes amid a rough crypto drawdown — BTC is down ~30%+ from its October 2025 all-time high, with the total crypto market cap off over $1 trillion. Forced selling of MSTR (and potentially miners) could spill over:
🔸If index funds dump MSTR shares → MSTR price crashes → margin/liquidity issues for the company → potential (though unlikely) need to liquidate some BTC → additional downward pressure on Bitcoin spot price.
🔸It would also remove one of the main channels for “stealth” institutional Bitcoin exposure via regular stock portfolios.
Current Market Sentiment
Markets are pricing in a high probability of exclusion — that's part of why MSTR and mining stocks have been leading the crypto sell-off this week, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs see mixed flows.
S&P Dow Jones already effectively snubbed Strategy from the S&P 500 earlier in 2025 for similar “not a real operating company” reasons, so precedent exists.
In short: The potential delisting of Bitcoin-heavy companies from major equity indexes is creating a structural headwind for Bitcoin-tied stocks and adding to the current bearish price action in the crypto market. Watch January 2026 closely; if the rule passes, expect a wave of mechanical selling in MSTR and related names that could feed back into Bitcoin sentiment.
Now that this news is public, perhaps we can form a bottom. Time will tell.
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I’d do everything in my power to vacate jurisdiction and bring attention to it… they’re scared. Like children. Or the elderly.
