That’s cool. I am working as a data analyst in the Bitcoin mining world (happy to disclose where outside of Nostr). I’ve also done a lot of work with on-chain data, pool shares, and things related to hashrate. Would love to look at your work on the ‘close hashrate estimates’ if it’s open source!

well, dynamic difficulty adjustment is pretty much ... hmmm not really sure, it's not something that needs new tools, and it was only because i happened to be working for a shitcoin project that was building a hybrid proof of work/proof of stake algorithm that the CTO happened to be a trained physicist and noticed that difficulty adjustments were like a type of device he was familiar with from his work in physics, the PID controller PID stands for Proportional Integral Derivative and it uses a set of parameters for each of those over a historical sample of data points to adjust a system, usually a linear parameter, to the inputs its getting in my experimenting with it, i built a simulator that tested parameters for P, I and D I found it was possible to adjust smoothly, or be more accurate but it had a high noise component i've since read a little more about how to work with these things and learned that the derivative can help a lot but in my tests it just added noise - the trick was to apply a band pass filter to cut the high frequencies out, and that probably would allow it to become faster at adjusting to changes without adding the noise factor that the P and I factor create when tweaked for fast adjustment the fact is that the bitcoin difficulty adjustment is actually sufficient for the task, and due to its simplicity is preferable, but i could write a dynamic adjustment that is resistant to timewarp attacks and would reduce the amount of variance of solution times