They have surpassed the US. Its obvious when you see it. Economists here write articles saying the US economy is bigger, with the implied message that people shouldn't be alarmed, but that's actually not true because the same money buys more stuff in China. They measure dollars here but forget that those dollars do more there, or they'll say that and imply it means our economy us stronger, which is wrong. Here's a little math puzzle : if your economy grows by 10% per year, how long does it take for the average purchasing power to double? And the answer, cuz I'm not a sadist : 7 years. The reality that I've confirmed with my own eyes is that every seven years Chinese people can afford twice as much stuff while doing the same job.