TL;DR
A futures market forces fork supporters to risk their BTC instead of attacking Bitcoin for free. If they won’t bet, their conviction is weak and the fork is likely to fail. Skin in the game exposes whether a fork has real support or just loud talk.
Replies (4)
If a hard fork happens I fully intend to sell one chain and buy the other.
Except the way to "bet" as stated doesn't work if the UASF succeeds. Because there is no way to guarantee your counterparty can submit both transactions on both chains. The UASF chain relies on miners resolving an OP_IF sighash, which would be disabled by the consensus change. So, no this is a "heads I win, tails you lose" type of bet.
Although that doesn't seem to make sense, I wonder if you checked the updated logic after the BIP has changed?
This will absolutely guarantee that Bitcoin gets centralized. Satoshi made it difficult to mine bitcoin to prevent this very thing - in a fiat system, those with wealth prevent changes and control supply by using their wealth (Cantillion Effect).
Bitcoin is the opposite ethos by nature, unless this gambling nonsense gets implemented.
