Not a bad read, seems pretty level headed.

Nice share. Thanks.

For the listeners, Bob really dives deeper. Here is the podcast.

Fountain

InFi: the Future of Finance • Ep. 60: Estimating an Upper Bound on Bitcoin's Price Appreciation • Listen on Fountain

Murphy provides a back-of-the-envelope calculation giving a ceiling on what Bitcoin's market cap can be when it reaches global adoption, and then c...

A comparison to M3 is much more appropriate than, say, total household wealth (see ). It gives a ballpark but we can't be certain about the future valuations of people. I think his key point is right if we adjust for inflation. We cannot expect it to keep exploding in purchasing power forever. We can expect it to continue to have modest gains in purchasing power forever if it actually becomes money. It doesn't look like Bitcoin is ready to take over for all the collapsing fiat monies supposing they collapse in the next few decades. We will most likely have several monies. I don't know what they all will be but perhaps something like gold, silver, Bitcoin, altcoins, and commonly used commodities.

I think much demand for stocks, bonds, and real estate would be replaced with demand for sound money if sound money were available. People don't hodl fiat money because it depreciates. If Bitcoin were money, some demand would shift from other asset classes into Bitcoin, thus increasing that so-called limit. A key Austrian insight is the true uncertainty about preferences of people in the future. So we cannot make quantitative predictions about price relationships with any certainty. We simply don't know what the configuration of prices would be because we cannot know what future preferences are.