Imagine

Only another 1000x to go

Gm

two points to keep in mind about this thought from Hal (PBUH) - what was 100 trillion in 2009 is now more like 10,000 trillion - typically every 4 years bitcoin price has added a zero so if his estimation is correct, likely we see 10,000M bitcoin in 20 years time View quoted note →

Nope. Just 100x ☺️

something to think about View quoted note →

Are we amused yet?

It is nice, but not relly the right way to think about it. The purchasing power of money does NOT equal to market cap of everything divided by total units of currency, but from supply and demand for money, that is demand for holding the units of currency (desire to hodl). To ilustrate, imagine a world where bitcoin is universal money, and everyone has a desire to have 5% of their net worth in BTC. Now immagine world where it's 25%. Massive difference. It works like all other market prices. Note that 25% in money is crazy high in a world, where bitcoin has become stable hard money, and is not going to the moon anymore. In Hal's argument the number would be 50%!

HALFIN $10M SAYLOR $13M DORSEY $? @jack

That's not how money works The value of the money is not equal to the value of all other wealth There's no reason it should be

Either have fun staying poor or be amused getting rich. The choice is yours.

He was ahead of his time in many ways. Zkps incl

wealth = $0.5 Q 1 BTC should be $25 M

2030 wealth = $1 Q 1 BTC = $50 M

and so on…

we’re left behind we need everything

trump, putin, china… and all the countries

2035 wealth = $ 2 Q that’s BTC $100 M

long run

So what would you buy it with? Or are you meaning elastic things like market cap which is affected by the act of buying / selling?

Thank you for this analysis, I’m thinking along the same line but can’t quite grasp the conclusion. Would Bitcoin market cap effectively float alongside that of every other asset class in proportion to how much people want to hold them? But if there was no fiat, a fixed supply asset like BTC is the defacto go between liquidity for all other asset classes. I can see that during the transition of Bitcoin adoption the value will go up, but the end state is much more difficult to see.

Assume the end state of total Bitcoin adoption and no fiat. How is value growth achieved in say a stock when any BTC going into it also devalues the BTC itself, which the stock is valued in. What?!

US M2 (physical Federal Reserve Notes plus digital dollar credit like checking deposits) is around 20 trillion USD US stock market capitalization is around 55 trillion USD plus all the private businesses, private homes/cars/effects, plus all the public infrastructure, plus all the foreign assets in countries where dollars are widely accepted USD is not worth anything like the market value of all assets offered for sale in dollars so if "all the stuff in the world" is worth however many trillion or quadrillion USD and somehow Bitcoin takes over as the world money, it doesn't follow that Bitcoin will have a value equal to that many trillion or quadrillion

End state would be an economy where everything is priced in BTC. Even the market cap numbers would be show in BTC. So market cap of Bitcoin would be 21M. Prices of goods on the market would be in BTC. Instead of never ending inflation, you would see prices reflecting the market conditions more acurately, without distortions caused by creation of new currency units.

"BTC going into a stock" just means that an exchange took place. One guy exchanged units of stock for another guy's BTC. Stocks can increase in value if investors think it is doing well as a bussiness. Then they are willing to buy for higher price.

I think I’m getting there… but not quite… so Bitcoin market cap would be 21 million, and every other asset could be priced in BTC but the total value or all assets would be greater than 21 million BTC. So if everyone sold all other assets their price would crash and the total BTC would still be 21 million? What if everyone spent all their BTC for stocks, the stock value would go up in proportion to the loss of value per BTC? This is so tricky.

"if everyone sold all other assets their price would crash" Yes. This would be a deflationary crash. However, I think it's easier to understand the other way around. If everyone suddenly really wanted dollars and was "buying" dollars with their homes, we would expect the value of the dollar relative to homes to rise and the value of the homes relative to the dollar to fall. "What if everyone spent all their BTC for stocks" This is a hyperinflationary crash. If EVERYONE spent all their currency on stocks, this would include the people who just received payment for selling their stocks. The holding period for currency balances approaches zero, the value of currency balances approaches zero, and people quickly stop accepting BTC in payment at all. Imagine the stock market is going crazy - you put $10 in and minutes later you have $100 - everyone is going nuts. P/E multiples approach 1,000 or more. You make a few hundred thousand dollars and go to the grocery store to buy yourself some nice steaks. How many dollars do you think those steaks are going to cost?