Nielsen's law. Which also is holding up quite well.
x200 since the introduction of the 1M "safety" limit.
Average household bandwidth in 2010: 5.4 Mbit/s
Average projected household bandwidth for 2026: 1 Gbit/s (which equals 1000 Mbit/s)
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Knowing that the 1M limit was first reached in 2017, we could assume that 20-40M blocks would be just fine for today's bandwidth infrastructure.
BCH has 32M and from there a dynamic growth algo, but is still utilised under 1M and never has been attacked in the way feared by Hal (and Satoshi).
Average where? US? Seems high for Uganda or El Salvador.
Will have to check the source again.
In many cities you get 10 Gbit/s and even in the countryside 300 MBit/s outside of rural areas is normal. So the estimate seems quite okay.
Most nodes are in highly poulated aras of US, Europe and Asia and that really didn't change over the last 17 years.
Weird, I don't see your reply on Damus, but I do on jumble.
Yes, that's the one (I think). It's a good argument for keeping blocks small iirc.