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TheBitcoinBattery TheBitcoinBattery@primal.net 1 year ago
Spent some time looking at my model and adjusted the trend line a bit. I'm going to wait a few weeks to see how things go before sharing new charts. It appears that the COVID crash lowered the trend line by 12%, not 10%, and the China mining ban lowered it by 73%, not 72.6%. Rational behind these changes is the price prior to 2020 was most often hitting a soft bottom at 1.05x the trend line. After making my previous 10% down adjustment for COVID the price for the following couple months was often hitting around 1.025x or so above the trend line, and after adjusting 72.6% down for the 2021 mining ban the bottom prices were floating on a soft bottom of about 1.015x the trend line. These were closer than they were before, so I am attempting to correct for that difference. The changes I made better align the prices seen the last 4 years so the lows float around a soft bottom of 1.05x the bottom trend line as was the case before 2020, so the data is more consistent over the last 12 years. With those 2 minor adjustments the current dip saw a deviation of 4% below, before recovering to currently being above, the long term trend. This change adjusts my trend line expected bottoms by about 18 days, so $80k forms the new floor that is unlikely but not impossible to be broken on Apr 23rd instead of Apr 5th. With today's updated trend line position being $78,097.42 we're back above it, at least for now. We'll see if the trend is broken again or if it holds going forward. #₿BatteryUpdate

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TheBitcoinBattery TheBitcoinBattery@primal.net 1 year ago
Tomorrow the trendline reaches $80k, making it exceedingly unlikely we'll drop below it, but not impossible. Historically the price holds above 1.05x the trendline outside of major market events that temporarily bring it to 1x or even 0.95x before quickly recovering above 1.05x. Covid was an outlier and dropped the price to nearly 0.5x the trendline which, along with the global shutdown, was significant enough to shift the trend line itself down 12% approximately. However, this delayed the growth only 6 weeks, before it resumed it's trajectory. China banning mining in 2021 was the biggest attack Bitcoin has ever faced, it shifted the trend line down 73%, delaying it's growth by a whopping 2 years and knee capping the 2021 bull year mid cycle. But the network is 5x stronger now, and it's unlikely that any major event will get anywhere close to China ban levels as far as it's affect on the network goes. Unlikely, but not impossible. I have yet to update my charts as I'm on vacation, but here's my previous post that links to prior charts as well as explaining my reasoning for adjusting the trend line numbers from prior posts. View quoted note → ☮️🧡₿
TheBitcoinBattery's avatar TheBitcoinBattery
Wowsa! The day after posting we 99.9% won't break below $80k, we break below $80k 😂. Well, I didn't say it was impossible. Let's take a deeper look. Looking at my numbers if the trend line is broken, without a macro event that shifts it down on the Y axis, then the price can VERY briefly go down another ~1 - 2%~ typically outside of exchange caused glitches like what happened in 2015. No model is perfect and outliers can happen when things get unexpectedly volatile. So my trend line minimum expected price today of $80,230.52 has been broken. We've hit more than 1% below that making this one of the most significant deviations from the overall trend since the trend itself shifted in 2021 due to the China Mining ban. Since it broke below $80k does this mean the trend is shifting down again? IMO unlikely. I don't think it will or is, the hashrate has never been higher and the difficulty adjustment just had one of the highest increases of nearly 7%. We're almost 10% into the next difficulty adjustment epoch and it's looking like a nearly 8% difficulty increase is on the horizon. Everything is pointing to upward momentum for Bitcoin but the market is tugging HARD to get it to go down. IMO this is likely a last ditch panic sell-off with the overall market being down so much, making this a hell of a buying opportunity before we see a massive 50%+ upswing sometime before May and kickstart this years bull bubble that may touch $1M a coin before returning to the trend a year later at around $250K. But nobody really knows for sure, there's too many variables to account for in any model. Keeping my eye on things. 🕵️‍♂️ Personally not worried at all, just curious and fascinated. I've been at this a long time. Just chill and breath, don't emotionally panic sell which you historically have always come to regret. This is potentially the biggest stacking opportunity of your life going forward. Stay calm, stay focused, things will be alright even if it's rocky in the short term. ☮️♥️₿ View quoted note →
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