GA nostriches,
After the most recent mini dump and the setting of a lower low, the questions begin to be raised, have we really hit the bottom? After 199 days since the late February bottom, it felt like the low was in and this idea was dashed as we dipped below $60k. The realisation at this time was, obvious and may be stupid as it sounds, there will always be a lower low, until the bottom is in, a which point the bull market can resume.
Through out 2022, it continually felt like the bottom was in, until in November, when our dry powder was truly gone and all the sellers had been well and truly shaken out and it really felt like £10k was on the cards, the low was actually in. The start of the bull market is only obvious 6 months to a year down the line, and even from November 2022, we did not climb very quick back to previous all time highs, it was a slow and gradual climb, with dips, through the 20ks, only reaching $30k in October 2023.
Could we continue to crab walk? Could we head lower, given time between the last all time high and the bottom of the market, we could be waiting until later this year. If we then look at how far we drop from the all time high (percentage terms) and where and when the bottom could be, there may be further to go (30% of all time highs sorry but ~$38k), but saying that, as we didn’t get to high, this might not drop quite so far. And saying that dropping to around the previous cycle’s all time high (or slightly lower), would match with the low of 2022, dipping below $20k.
So now, we have an idea of when the bottom could be in, based on previous cycles, now then, how long might we have to wait until the next all time high. Last cycle with the early, pre halving all time high, not as long as previous cycles. How long we had to wait appears to be falling, but this might mean we’d have to wait until around mid 2027 for a new all time high……. Can you all hold out another year.
Bitcoin still keeps working, enforcing the hard cap, processing transactions, it will still be there at the end of the year and in the middle of next year. Outside this certainty, with all the geopolitical uncertainty, who knows what could happen, who knows who is loading up, getting over exposed or what impact this week’s IPO from the stars will bring, and whether the recent dip was simply degens trading their bitcoin to make more bitcoin the SpaceX.
Either way, I’m still focused on my craft, focused on accumulating but also focused on making connects and building other forms of capital outside bitcoin’s financial capital. Remember, Bitcoin with a capital B is the network, and that is how we take power away from the government. All the big boys loading up don’t care about this part as much h, and they don’t realise what they’re missing. Having lots of money locked up with institutions doesn’t buy you freedom. Peace out.
