I’m a huge believer in Bitcoin. And I respect the theory behind MSTR’s strategy: accumulate, HODL, and increase leverage against the hardest asset known to man. However, I’m still skeptical of MicroStrategy’s structure until they offer transparent, verifiable proof of reserves. The new STRK & STRF share class dividend mechanics are clever. They’re clearly signaling loyalty to long-term Bitcoin holders and creating a new kind of financial product to allow bitcoiners a priority claim within their capital stack…a priority claim that offers a yield. In theory, this is financial innovation capturing an intellectual asymmetry, exploiting an arbitrage in free market efficiency. But without public, cryptographically provable bitcoin reserves, MSTR is positioned more as a black box, just a black box we want to believe in. Bitcoin is trustless. Public companies are not. Show us the keys.

We just don’t seem to be having fun this cycle. The memes and video compilations and overall social overlay lack the fun factor. Make bull runs fun again. #bitcoin

One of the most fascinating dynamics to watch over the next decade will be the interplay between Bitcoin and government-issued bonds. From a purely logical standpoint, these two instruments are fundamentally incompatible under current market dynamics—especially for maturities of five years or longer. For treasury bonds with 5+ year durations to remain competitive with Bitcoin, they’d need to offer yields north of 20%. That’s not a forecast—it’s math. The idea of Bitcoin-backed bonds doesn’t resolve this either. If an investor believes in Bitcoin’s trajectory over a 5+ year horizon, the rational choice is to hold the asset directly—not lend it out or buy structured products that are mathematically guaranteed to underperform. In other words, the “risk mitigation” case for Bitcoin-backed bonds collapses when the alternative is simply owning Bitcoin. So what happens next? Either market participants will need to be emotionally persuaded—manipulated, even—or governments and institutions will need to reframe the entire narrative around sovereign debt and monetary alternatives. How (or if) that messaging is managed over the coming years will be one of the great financial psychodramas of our time.

@ODELL re: your comment on Klarna being 0% … based on my experience, at least for vehicles, if you get zero percent financing the overall cost of the vehicle is more than if you’re paying cash upfront. They build the cost of financing into the price of the underlying asset sale.

Purging non-active accounts. Amazing how many “heavy hitters” just up and left 1-2 years ago. Several “Primal 2024 OGs” are inactive, too. Bizarre.

Asking for the best resource(s) for high quality, custom floorplans. #AskNostr I am thinking about starting construction on that citadel, forever home once we finally approach this cycle’s blow-off top. Ideas, links, or NOSTR accounts who might play on this space? @Marty Bent @ODELL @RABBIT HOLE RECAP @Jeff Booth @preston @jack mallers @Lyn Alden @HODL @Lawrence Lepard @less