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lkraider
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lkraider 3 days ago
@Tim Bouma NIST has released the final version of Considerations for Achieving Crypto Agility: Marin’s CRQC Quantum Capability Framework has a Q-Day estimate, and goes in-depth in the methodology: my AI cross-reference summary: **Strategy vs. Forecasting** (The "When" and "How") NIST focuses on how to adapt, whereas the Framework focuses on when the adaptation must be complete. - NIST (Defense): Focuses on Crypto Agility—the ability to seamlessly swap algorithms (like ML-DSA or ML-KEM) without significant infrastructure overhauls. - Framework (Threat Intel): Uses nine technical domains (e.g., Quantum Error Correction, Decoder Performance, and Magic-State Production) to forecast Q-Day (the date RSA-2048 falls), currently estimated around 2030 (±2 years). - Correlation: Organizations can use the Framework’s "CRQC Readiness Benchmark" (measuring Logical Qubit Capacity and Operations Budget) to determine the "trigger dates" for the migration phases outlined in NIST’s Crypto Agility Strategic Plan.