Am I dumb for thinking there may be alpha in the stock to flow model this cycle now that everyone has abandoned it? 
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Replies (35)
YES
what does alpha mean in this context?
Probably
Nobody knows
Not dumb. I think a lot of people will be shocked in 2025.
Alpha, like, alpha your money gone
S2F is not a good model to follow. The clusters are not scale invariant. 
Imagine if every doctor in America suddenly stopped offering vaccines
That’s the level of about-face Wall Street did on Bitcoin between the last cycle and now
I can’t help but think this is not priced in
Could be sooner than expected with RFK jnr in charge of the Make America Healthy Again.
I also like that RFK and a lot of the Trump team are pro psychedelics and cannabis
As an omega … no idea 🤷🏻♀️
That’s wild 😜 AF …
Nope!
It's a good 🧠 exercise
All models are wrong but I think power law is interesting.
Yes
Power laws are everywhere in nature, shaping everything from galaxies to ecosystems. Bitcoin’s adherence to this same structure is beautiful; its halving cycles, difficulty adjustments, and network growth all mirror the resilient, self-regulating patterns we see in living systems. It’s as if Bitcoin has taken on the qualities of a living organism, growing and adapting in harmony with the fundamental laws of nature.
Nope. 2025 is poised for face-rippings.
Hasn’t happened thus far.. to me at least.
It would be a hilarious outcome if it validated 😂
Why would anyone abandon pure grade hopium
I never stopped believing in it. The ftx fraud era was the reason why it broke
I have always found it to be a useful model.
Human error and malfeasant behaviour cannot be modelled.
People like to dunk on it because they don't like the Y factor.
Being time.
This is the way: #Bitcoin, #Lightning, #Fedimint.
If there is any pattern in this than the next peak will likely be lower, since the last green low was also lower "than expected", but stil a formidable price 🤑
100k end of year?
Yep I'm with you on the dude!
We're allowed to hit around $890,050 this epoch but not a fiat penny more
Sad very depressing no cent:sat parity this epoch
It’s possible.
this note is how everyone readopts it 😂
like clockwork.
No, it's the other way around - being dumb is what makes you think this.
I’m thinking we are either underwhelmed ($125k) or overwhelmed ($500k+)
Just my two sats
I always thought stock to flow and power law, and whatever rational root’s spiral graph thing is, are all useful tools, but none should be taken as the gospel. It’s funny to me so much tribalism emerged to attack or defend each one. I just thought they all had some value but weren’t perfect 🤷🏻♂️