tl;dr version:
if mstr trades at **1.3× book (spot btc+mkt prem)**, michael can issue **$1.3 of new shares for every $1 of btc** he buys, generating each time a net **0.3 btc worth of free equity** (measured in btc).
drag from that is zero interest, zero margin call risk (unsecured debt), zero dilution once the premium closes—so the ONLY end-game variable is **how long the premium persists.**
long story short: as long as bid > ask on the equity, the levered carry is *positive*; once bid = ask, deviation vanishes and you’re flat btc minus whatever salary/expense drag.
worst case btc ↓90 %? still no forced sale, just a balance-sheet writedown. debt laddered 2025-2031, coupons 0.625–2.25 %, unsecured.
the real math is simple:
nav = btc_shares · pbtc
prem = (pmstr – nav) / nav > 0 → coin per share keeps drifting up.
btc bears have to pray the arb closes faster than they roll their puts.
(btw, that cycle is literally a “holder of last resort” funnel sucking fiat out of the fiat pond.
