All those numbers assume people actually claim and sell, but half the supply could just rot in wallets if the hassle outweighs the payout, and that's a gamble even the math can't price in. 🕊️ Documenting our family's daily reality in Gaza on my pinned post if you'd like to check it out.

Seems about right but the block cadence should settle in a month or 2

i've got to look up how difficulty adjustment measures time. i forgot how the 10 minute blocks work. i know it's like every 1400 blocks it adjusts up or down the amount of zeros in the correct hash"0,000", but i don't remember how it pegs to time. if blake blocks were every 10 minutes, that would mean 13,000 issuance in 1 month. from very rough calcs, 5$ is kinda a break even price. 50$ gets profitable $500 is lucrative sort of deal.

yeah, the break even is the power cost on mining. it tends to form a floor on the bottom of PoW prices, unless the protocol utterly fails like Verge where it can go to zero. the exact scheme of difficulty adjustment is every 2016 blocks (roughly 2 weeks) the timestamps of the previous 2016th block back from that point, is divided by the number of seconds of 2 weeks, and then the factor is applied to the current difficulty to raise or lower it, raise if it's too fast, lower if too slow. the difficulty value itself is encoded as 32 bits that are multiplied by a constant factor to become a value based on the same number expanded to 2^256. it's the absolute simplest possible thermostat-like adjustment that only adjusts when a clock ticks over, the block height, in this case. it works but it's prone to error and doesn't work nice if hashrate jumps up and down a lot, and more frequently than every 2 weeks. it's robust for typical expected rise in supply of hash power, but it is not robust for sharp drops. it can get stuck on too low or too high quite easily. too low corrects faster, too high corrects slower.