I like MSTR long term, but at the moment the price is very high vs its net asset value. The company does a great job of raising capital to arbitrage that situation when it occurs, but outside investors need to be careful when those types of wider-than-normal gaps develop.

Replies (38)

I was about to divest from my MSTR when the US ETFs came online at about $450 per share, but I listened to a @preston podcast and held. Today they’re at $1631.
Because many capital stuck in tradfi cannot easily 2x or 3x long btc. #MSTR is the only legit way doing so. #Microstrategy will continue going up till BTC reaches the peak in this cycle.
Thanks for your wise caution. Here’s what I do: Starting position was 50% FBTC, 50% MSTR, all in tax-advantaged accounts. When MSTR pumps 1-5% ahead of more, I'm quickly rebalancing into FBTC back to 50/50. I never sell the FBTC. If MSTR reverts to mean, I'll HODL and wait until it becomes my race horse again in the future. And by future, I mean decades.
@Lyn Alden - is there a scenario wherein bitcoin ETFs experience a run? Retail investors/traders cash out gains en masse? And ultimately cause a bitcoin bear? Thanks.
Lyn do you believe that MSTR is under a short squeeze? Approximately 20% of market cap (3B) sold short?
Do what Saylor does and sell MSTR for bitcoin today!
Lyn Alden's avatar Lyn Alden
I like MSTR long term, but at the moment the price is very high vs its net asset value. The company does a great job of raising capital to arbitrage that situation when it occurs, but outside investors need to be careful when those types of wider-than-normal gaps develop.
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Jon's avatar
Jon 1 year ago
Hi Lyn, do you think there is a 10th man at MicroStrategy asking if this is a good idea and what will make this fail?
@preston still holding or are you taking profits here? You got me into this amazing trade, would love your two sats on when to nibble on some profits
What do you think about these guys thesis? They argue that MSTR isn't really a BTC derivative, thus it'll be valued different than by NAV. And if it gets added to S&P MSTR will get buying pressure which is indefferent about its NAV. It's high risk for sure, but I think there's a compelling case why it could go much higher due to these financial dynamics and not being an ETF but a running business with cash flow. 2021 top was 6x to NAV, so it has happened before already. But yeah, MSTR is just few percentage speculation for me. Only thing I'm speculating atm – everything else in BTC – because in my estimation there's a good risk/reward ratio to outperform BTC – especially in a bullmarket.
Hack0's avatar
Hack0 1 year ago
I’d hate to know how many notes I’ve seen from bitcoiners about investing in it. My thought has been if you can get it through your company match do so up to the match amount or no more than 10% of total bitcoin holdings. Any thoughts like this for the plebs ?
David's avatar
David 1 year ago
Of course. It’s almost a certainty
curt finch 's avatar
curt finch 1 year ago
the graph of mstr/btc is very instructive
Thanks for this. MSTR is my only bc option in my IRA because it’s at Vanguard. May have over done it a tad. 😬 Will calm down a bit and brace for some volatility.
i believe they say: BTC MSTR share price 150,000 -->10,000 1,000,000 --> 66,000
Yes, but in a bull-runs isn’t that always going to be the case? Like, the stock isn’t attractive to speculators as a bitcoin value play, it’s attractive as a leveraged play.