Most people I see who talk about robots quickly replacing humans out in the field (eg not white collar work, not assembly line work, but blue collar work out in the world) haven’t had any experience with what those jobs actually entail.
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Yep. The people betting on robots for field work have clearly never fought a 40 year-old bolt that refuses to turn.
Much easier for AI to do your taxes than clean your house.
It’s true, the dynamics are much more nuanced than most give credit outside of such labors.
I’ve been in construction for over 20 years, it will be very difficult to replace humans in some aspects.
In others, like grading, it has already started because lasers and gps are very common in construction now.
I remember when we had to use actual hand held maps to find jobs…now we just punch in the address.
When I think about what an electrician has to do (in a home) might involve carpentry in addition to their electrical work. They have to find where wires lead. They might consult with a homeowner regarding the placement of a light fixture or outlet. They clean up after themselves. Seems all very difficult for an AI to navigate.
General Intelligence Software AI is Near
General Human Purpose/Ability Hardware is Far Away
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As a 4 generation family pool remodeling company I completely agree.
You can’t google what we know and every job is different.
There's a reason they kick you off a jobsite if you're drunk. In the trades, ten unskilled hands do not replace one skilled hand. Robots are not only unskilled, but move like they are drunk.
Yes. The only realistic way I can see residential blue collar work being automated is if houses are built specifically to be serviced by robots in the future. As it stands, there is no planet where a robot could service existing homes.
We're 10+ years into robotic vacuum cleaners and they still suck, but in two days from now were going to send a robot to fix the plumbing of your house 👌
Tax is theft, why do people use this as their example? Makes me lose hope for humanity.
Not in old (beautiful) housing stock.
Maybe new builds on mars if that’s what we’re aiming for.
You think those robots can drink 6-8 beers after work? Doubt it.
Was at a restaurant yesterday, first time I have had a robot deliver food unaccompanied by a human.
Yep. Try getting a robot to fish wires from a basement to an attic, or cut plaster and lathe without letting the plaster crumble.
If you go to school, let it be trade school. Always a shortage there!
True. You can break down hard jobs into smaller, easy tasks and those can and will get replaced quicker. Block by block. I’m just curious how fast it’ll go… since honestly, nobody has a fucking clue.
Agree.
I think you're already seeing it with Helix Robots in BMW factories. Repetitive tasks, that don't require ingenuity, can be replaced quicker than for example that robot doing tasks in the house. Primarily cause of the controlled setting.
Jobs on factory floors that require managing and using a diverse set of equipment, triaging issues, directing workforce etc, is still years away.
White collar jobs are definitely more at risk in the very near term but that too, mostly jobs that are rote, repetitive and task oriented
🎯
Robots are already doing the hard parts. (Back hoes, etc)
We're decades (if ever) away from the human elements being replaced.
Ever seen an electrician do basic jobs? What do you think? We are just gonna jump from 0 to building data centers with robots?
Baby steps.
Put your eyes on the Chinese. It will start there first.
As a wood boi: Cnc can only do the most basic shit. Yr telling me i need a $100k machine and a $80k/yr specialist employee to do what a $70k/yr guy can do alone? That dont math
Pow
As a metal boi :
Conc is great for mass production repetition but as soon as you try to do some individualistic difficult welding on a unique piece you faster training an apprentice !
I think vast groups of people are still very disconnected from vast groups of other people.
AI will also not replace the office work nearly as fast as has been hyped.
This. And Most people who replace or worry about robots replacing jobs don’t actually understand how things work.
Seems to me that AI is replacing white collar faster than robots are replacing blue collar.
I just hope to have a functional and reliable companion during my old age
HVAC REPAIRMAN IS ALWAYS NEEDED, A ROBOT CANT REPLACE US
lol they can. Repairs wouldn’t be done the traditional way anymore.
Have you worked in HVAC or refrigeration?
Real physical hands on work is extremely nuanced. We struggle to get people to learn how to do those tasks accurately. Robots are really not even close to handling those nuances and variables that take place in the field. I don't doubt it can evolve quickly but at the current state robots are at best assistants to these real people soon the work.
Have you ?
regardless, humans are being pushed to the edge cases of even skilled work. And the ancillary roles are cooked with ai (estimator, project manager, quant surveyor).
I would ofc heavily discount a total displacement of skilled labour, but you might be surprised how much manual work will be saturated by the time bots are mass adopted.
I would bet on more being expected of a skilled trade for same time/money. Not redundant, just analog difficulty adjustments, permanently.
I have anecdotes.
Seriously... I’ve seen people on here looking for jobs, and heard of a lot of general job loss out there. There’s been a shortage of blue collar workers for a looooonnng time and I’m telling you it’s not getting automated anytime soon. Among other things: we need more good welders in general but especially people who can weld stainless. We need more people who are good with miscellaneous & ornamental metals (think stairs, railings, fences, gates, & various non-structural supports…). And we need even more people who can draft the work in CAD + understand the work in the field.
You want “fuck you” money? Well these are “fuck you” skills right now. There’s lots of freedom in being a skilled journeyman.
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That’s literally my job bby
for 5 years
Then I have to nothing to say that’ll convince you otherwise regarding your stance.
I manage multiple concrete crews and I guarantee these are the LAST jobs getting replaced by robots and AI… 🤣
All I've seen robots do is dance
Which is barely interacting with the real world