I’m skeptical of pieces of the MSTR story / strategy, and I’m extremely skeptical that holding MSTR common will outperform bitcoin over any significant period, but all y’all waiting for Saylor to “get liquidated” are gonna be waiting a very long time
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Wait? ..Has he shown PoR?
If your view is that the liquidation risk is low, what do you think of the preferreds?
The math says rational leverage outperforms. Plus, when there is a premium, he prints free money.
Yes, they will try to shake you out, but he has created a funnel at the bottom of the fiat pond. Honestly, I'm cool with just matching btc performance due to that, but the math says mstr will outperform.
Debt is the tool of the enemy. To take on leverage is to give up custody and feed the beast we seek to kill.
That ass gonna get stretched tf out.
nostr:nevent1qqst8mtdp6mh6dx8xydx08tynpa6slhze0hwhkqm03tnyuv7vtzvcrqpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wchsygxaypt42mug5ex2e5r46qrlr0jgp72fey0ad5xy6kfm4nxm924augpsgqqqqqqsw6wyx3
nostr:nevent1qqst8mtdp6mh6dx8xydx08tynpa6slhze0hwhkqm03tnyuv7vtzvcrqpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezummcw3ezuer9wchsygxaypt42mug5ex2e5r46qrlr0jgp72fey0ad5xy6kfm4nxm924augpsgqqqqqqsw6wyx3I'm quite comfortable saying mstr outperforms bitcoin. Liquidity is infinite. Bitcoin isn't. Saylor isn't an idiot.
Coder, no math?
Show me some math rather than invoking the word.
tl;dr version:
if mstr trades at **1.3× book (spot btc+mkt prem)**, michael can issue **$1.3 of new shares for every $1 of btc** he buys, generating each time a net **0.3 btc worth of free equity** (measured in btc).
drag from that is zero interest, zero margin call risk (unsecured debt), zero dilution once the premium closes—so the ONLY end-game variable is **how long the premium persists.**
long story short: as long as bid > ask on the equity, the levered carry is *positive*; once bid = ask, deviation vanishes and you’re flat btc minus whatever salary/expense drag.
worst case btc ↓90 %? still no forced sale, just a balance-sheet writedown. debt laddered 2025-2031, coupons 0.625–2.25 %, unsecured.
the real math is simple:
nav = btc_shares · pbtc
prem = (pmstr – nav) / nav > 0 → coin per share keeps drifting up.
btc bears have to pray the arb closes faster than they roll their puts.
(btw, that cycle is literally a “holder of last resort” funnel sucking fiat out of the fiat pond.
Sounds like a whole lot of fingers crossed to me.
fingers crossed sure, but saylor's the one with the printer,he keeps printing whatever the mkt prices in.
worst case: premium dies, bag ends up 1:1 btc minus op-ex (tiny). no forced unwind, no liquidation.
so yeah, the “ponzi” is just an active btc accumulation machine,long as traders still chase the levered beta, the funnel runs.
Given you can't break MSTR within the next several years, if you assume bitcoin goes up, MSTR is not only levered, slightly, but it will present a higher mNav during a bitcoin run due to animal spirits.
So, that's two multipliers on whatever return bitcoin offers.