What even is the meaning of "Nostr wins"?
If Nostr's main USP - it's decentralization - doesn't convince the mainstream social network users, why should it all of the sudden convince the mainstream videostream / chat / notes / forms / ecommerce / blogging / wiki / etc. users?
Imho "Nostr winns" means, it stays true to its values, doesn't try to become economically interesting by selling out to the mainstream for the quick $$$ and instead just somehow stays online, slowly grows, step by step, into a too-big-to-fail position.
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Yeah, i'm good where it is. If it's meant to be found by someone, it means they were looking. Let's get all those people in first.
And then slam the door and burn everything else down. Kidding. Kind of.
as somebody exploring here who started on ActivityPub, I agree. a lot of people over there were salty that BlueSky "won" by getting 20 million toxic Twitter jerks in a mass migration. all those people went to BlueSky because that's what they want. if they'd showed up on ActivityPub fedi, they would have ruined it, and they'd have spent the entire time upset about how the platform works. not good for either party.
You want your society to be in the know and speak freely and pseudonymously. That is what nostr winning means to me - where you can reasonably do this with a good portion of the population.
The phrase changed from "don't ask permission" to "without waiting for permission." It means you have the funds, and without money, nothing can be done.
I think it is important to note that the USP is not 'decentralization' as such, it is censorship-resistance/decentralization AND network-effect/interoperability.
Because that is the problem it fixes; the internet was already permissionless and decentralized, and as a result a rumble and odyssee etc exist next to youtube.
But due to the nature of platforms/silos and network-effect dynamics, those 'alternatives' are inherrently marginal.
In the current context of these large platforms, freedom of association always means self-marginalization; Nostr's USP is that that is no longer the case (insofar Nostr itself is not marginal). And this applies to the 'platforms'/relays you use AND the apps/clients you use.
As such we have a story for all sides, be that content creators, app developers, lurkers, merchants etc.
I am on a bit of a Nostr-propaganda-podcast-tour and i notice that all of this does resonate. I subsequently do agree with all the rest of your statement. I am not anxious regarding Nostr's 'growth', because for those that stick around this is conciously a 'final destination', and it ultimately makes sense for most people anyway.