There are 144 blocks in a day on average. Yes. Thankfully, I don't think it will even get a chance for us to risk the dangers this attack would otherwise pose if it actually held support.
Mechanic's theories of everyone jumping in last minute notwithstanding.
But we'll all see around August 7. And then perhaps get back to more serious methods of ensuring Bitcoin's future as money, such as covenants. Because spam or no spam, with 8 billion people, even monetary transactions crowd out monetary transactions at some point, even with Lightning.
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Ah, I see you simply don’t understand how this works. One block a day means miners signaling for BIP110 have a reasonable chance of receiving payouts within a single difficulty epoch. They only need to keep mining for two weeks until the next difficulty adjustment kicks in.
Even if we assume no additional hash rate joins BIP110, once we reach the activation block height, every BIP110 block remains valid on the legacy chain, while legacy blocks are no longer valid on the BIP110 chain. That creates a temporary chain split, but it poses no risk to BIP110 miners - they simply continue mining their own chain for the next 2,016 blocks.
At the following difficulty adjustment, the BIP110 chain’s difficulty drops by roughly 99.2%, bringing block production back to the target of one block every 10 minutes in average. At that point, the remaining 99% of the hash rate suddenly has a massive incentive to switch over. They have everything to gain by mining the BIP110 chain and even more to lose by staying on the legacy chain.
Why is Mechanic correct and other pools won’t wait so long to react? Because they understand exactly how these incentives work. No miner in their right mind is going to risk forfeiting an entire epoch’s worth of block rewards by refusing to switch once the economic reality becomes obvious. I think it’s already obvious, but let’s wait another month until it sinks in.
I think we'll manage without covenants as well. But sure, better with, if there's overwhelming consensus.
I mean, I mean covenants, eventually. We have things to work out with them. Or other scaling methods.
There just isn't block space for 8 billion people to transact on chain more than a handful of times. And Ark/Spark as is are pretty sorry tradeoffs for a full stack when it comes to general sovereignty.