Ah, I see you simply don’t understand how this works. One block a day means miners signaling for BIP110 have a reasonable chance of receiving payouts within a single difficulty epoch. They only need to keep mining for two weeks until the next difficulty adjustment kicks in.
Even if we assume no additional hash rate joins BIP110, once we reach the activation block height, every BIP110 block remains valid on the legacy chain, while legacy blocks are no longer valid on the BIP110 chain. That creates a temporary chain split, but it poses no risk to BIP110 miners - they simply continue mining their own chain for the next 2,016 blocks.
At the following difficulty adjustment, the BIP110 chain’s difficulty drops by roughly 99.2%, bringing block production back to the target of one block every 10 minutes in average. At that point, the remaining 99% of the hash rate suddenly has a massive incentive to switch over. They have everything to gain by mining the BIP110 chain and even more to lose by staying on the legacy chain.
Why is Mechanic correct and other pools won’t wait so long to react? Because they understand exactly how these incentives work. No miner in their right mind is going to risk forfeiting an entire epoch’s worth of block rewards by refusing to switch once the economic reality becomes obvious. I think it’s already obvious, but let’s wait another month until it sinks in.
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I wonder why most if not all Covenants supporters are also spam supporters?
They'd be switching over to an alternative chain though. That chain, at the lower difficulty, would not overtake the existing Bitcoin chain, as it is the total weight of proof of work, not simple number of blocks, which would determine the chain used by all legacy nodes (including, you know, the ones that are used by the exchanges). We'd literally be looking at another BCash scenario.
It is true that if a large portion of the hashrate did move over to the split chain, it would then ramp up in difficulty (as the legacy chain dropped) and thus make a huge reorg possible as if it did finally overtake the legacy chain, those legacy nodes (the vast majority of Bitcoin nodes) would suddenly reorg their chain to the 110 chain. At the minimum 2 weeks worth of blocks, (plus whatever time it takes to overtake it with more proof of work). I would think everyone would recognize this as perhaps the worst possible outcome (unless you're that hellbent on getting sats cheaper -- because you very much will).