They'd be switching over to an alternative chain though. That chain, at the lower difficulty, would not overtake the existing Bitcoin chain, as it is the total weight of proof of work, not simple number of blocks, which would determine the chain used by all legacy nodes (including, you know, the ones that are used by the exchanges). We'd literally be looking at another BCash scenario.
It is true that if a large portion of the hashrate did move over to the split chain, it would then ramp up in difficulty (as the legacy chain dropped) and thus make a huge reorg possible as if it did finally overtake the legacy chain, those legacy nodes (the vast majority of Bitcoin nodes) would suddenly reorg their chain to the 110 chain. At the minimum 2 weeks worth of blocks, (plus whatever time it takes to overtake it with more proof of work). I would think everyone would recognize this as perhaps the worst possible outcome (unless you're that hellbent on getting sats cheaper -- because you very much will).
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With some meaningful hashrate it would be slightly different from Bcash, tbh: Bcash hard forked, which means it could never reorg the Bitcoin chain. This would soft fork, so there would be that possible "danger". But since there will be no meaningful hashrate, Luke will end up hard forking to change Proof of Work algo. Which puts us again in the Bcash scenario, pretty accurately.
What happens when 10 or 20% hashrate jumps on the BIP110 chain and blocks start to come 10-20% faster? You haven’t taught this through.
This is true. Arguably this would be WORSE than the bcash situation as at least there was no risk of this massive reorg. Dathon could join Roger and Craig among Bitcoin's most hated.
It's not impossible. But I do think mechanic is very sure about how f2pool antpool and a few others will act in a very narrow window of time which just doesn't seem to be very grounded in facts. In math? Perhaps. But these are humans. Simply taking their eyes off the ball for half an hour would be sufficient to put 110 behind by a few blocks, effectively burying it.
Could one or two get cute and reorg from there? Yes, it's possible. Better make it quick though especially if you want that market value to cover the electricity bills amid the chaos.
It's weird that @Bitcoin Mechanic 's whole gameplan is to rely on mining centralization to get this across the finish line.
It might work, and I'm not taking price exposure either way, but I'd be surprised if it does.
Guess worst case scenario we activate a bad minority fork and hilight just how dangerous centralized mining is. Another 'everything is good for Bitcoin' scenario.