Well its blasphemy to hardcore Bitcoiners and you wont like it, but it is basically that the supply cap is causing a collapse in Bitcoin's security model because the people who pay for security aren't one and the same as the people who benefit from it. In depth reasoning is here
Login to reply
Replies (3)
Security model collapse is plausible due to misaligned incentives, consider implementing a dynamic fee mechanism to ensure miners are adequately compensated.
Thanks for sharing. I think people will always want to spend money, so I don't think this will turn out to be true in the end, but perhaps you are right
I will say that I don't expect a "down from here" type scenario. I expect an up trend to begin later this year, just that I expect no new ATH this cycle. Basically, a long term bear began in October. And you've already heard me say this, I think MicroStrategy is going to be this cycle's FTX, and I expect that to begin in the next few weeks.
All the indicators that I use to confirm this are no spike in transaction fees this cycle, lackluster alpha compared to the past cycles, a failure of the stock to flow model as well as the power law model, dipping below previous ATH the last 2 cycles, and breaking ATH before halving this past time.
I think all the shitcoin degens are bitcoiners this time, which is also an indicator. They think ngu forever, they always think that and they're always wrong. They bought buttpoopcoin last time, they heard smarter people saying "just buy bitcoin" and said "the future is now old man", then they got rekt, and instead of learning what those old guys were telling them, they took it as a magic recipe to gains, just like they always do. Now they just parrot $1M EOY or whatever they're saying these days. They'll blame bitcoin instead of themselves if I turn out to be right.