I find it ironic that the of return that underlies the treasury model business requires Bitcoin to be a currency and that their own businesses impair that outcome. If they want to get away with the dangerous game they’re playing, I would suggest they start investing in the spend your bitcoin (not stablecoin) narrative and ecosystem very quickly.

Replies (35)

Ava Tharr's avatar
Ava Tharr 1 week ago
The paradox of successful money is that everyone wants to keep it. The paradox of useful money is that nobody does.
Like gold - if you build derivative games on top of bitcoin (inflationary money) and people use it, and try to get higher interest rates in it to keep up with prices going up, many people will choose that (they need the income to support prices unnaturally rising and it “seems” like a safe bet. That centralizes bitcoin and the store of value ceases to be a good store of value because the rules change (Like gold) Fortunately, this is protocol and the nodes matter. When that day arrives- and it surely will if this continues, there will be a fork and the coin that has the leverage on top of it versus the one being used in the economy will likely fail (as will all claims on top of it. (like bcash) Just the long and winding road we must go through to for bitcoin to move us from a zero sum game to an infinite game.
Toby McMann's avatar
Toby McMann 1 week ago
The treasury company model, at least in its current form -- loaded up with preferreds -- requires NGU, and by a lot. Are you saying that, for the price to increase a lot, we need bitcoin to be used for payments? The problem, I think, is medium of exchange will benefit from less volatility. But number go up (a lot) needs volatility. So, do the treasury companies really want to push a medium of exchange narrative? I dont think so? 🤔
Like gold - if you build derivative games on top of bitcoin (inflationary money) and people use it, and try to get higher interest rates in it to keep up with prices going up, many people will choose that (they need the income to support prices unnaturally rising and it “seems” like a safe bet. That centralizes bitcoin and the store of value ceases to be a good store of value because the rules change (Like gold) Fortunately, this is protocol and the nodes matter. When that day arrives- and it surely will if this continues, there will be a fork and the coin that has the leverage on top of it versus the one being used in the economy will likely fail (as will all claims on top of it. (like bcash) Just the long and winding road we must go through to for bitcoin to move us from a zero sum game to an infinite game.
Doubt it - becomes too intertwined and is a part of default inflationary system. Investors, government, bonds, stock market, etc etc. Payments is the way they “might” get their cake and eat it too - but how many people will spend it versus getting interest. Incentives matter.
Toby McMann's avatar
Toby McMann 1 week ago
Thank you. Very thought provoking and appreciated. Sorry for the delayed response. Your thinking is next level. Mine is not. So I am learning and appreciate your patience. My understanding... Derivatives on gold effectively increase the supply, putting downward pressure on price through rehypothication. In other words, paper gold and physical gold are treated as (near) perfect substitutes. I think this describes the situation? I am not sure that investors in treasury company preferreds are treating them as substitutes to bitcoin. I think they are betting bitcoin's price will go up "enough" over time (and Strategy's holdings and ability to attract capital will remain sufficient) to keep the dividends coming, and ideally keep the preferred price near par. Conversely, investors in Strategy common are largely betting bitcoin goes up a lot. Around Saylor's assumption of a 30% CAGR. With leverage provided by the converts and preferred, the common is a leveraged bet on bitcoin. Strategy is not (yet) lending out its bitcoin. Its shares are not perfect substitues. So I dont see rehypothication from their activities. Instead, I see Strategy bringing capital to the network by facilitating an more granular alignment of risk appetite for various investors. That is the value that Saylor is creating. He is building Bitcoin's yield curve. But, again, I dont see the value coming from rehypothication or increased supply from substitutes. I dont see a centralization of control from these activities. So I am not sure we will need a fork. Or the medium of exchange use case to solve the problem, etc. But, again, I fully appreciate your thinking is beyond mine in many ways. Just thought I would be transparent, if it helps align our communities view of the situation and risks?
ты знаешь английский лучше меня если ты понимаешь что Джефф написал 🤣 😜
Cowboy Bob's avatar
Cowboy Bob 1 week ago
Those Treasury companies could - to some extent - play the central bank game in the Bitcoin world by dumping a high number of BTC to the market and make the price in Fiat drop short term, then buy cheaper than they sold. (Similar to what we saw just these days, with ridiculous 32 BTC on June 1st.)
The friction to spend is still too high for the average user. If they truly believed in the currency thesis, they would build rails instead of just accumulating piles.
Jude's avatar
Jude 1 week ago
I finally bought a sandwich with bitcoin at a square pos and it was awesome and easy. The hardest part was building the confidence to ask for it. It should just pop up without anyone having to mention Bitcoin.
They are all regulated by the State anyway, which means they forfeit Bitcoin's entire value proposition of being money that the State can't control. Bring regulated by the State also makes them a branch of the very State that Bitcoin defunds. The State will weaponize these companies in their fight against separation of Money from State. If Bitcoin survives, these companies will not.
MSTR’s coins are still part of the network. They just have contracts with preferred shareholders to pay them in fiat later for fiat provided now. Investors in the common have contractual ownership over future balance sheet assets. Both are taking on counterparty risk of course but the network itself doesn’t care.
McG's avatar
McG 4 days ago
Don’t ask don’t get