I’m so bored with #bitcoin price predictions (including my own) in fiat terms. They are all just guesses based on (unpredictable) fiat liquidity waves. Just stack sats and go on with your life. The price will take of itself over time. Done properly, life will get cheaper and quality will improve the longer you live on a Bitcoin standard. That is all.

Replies (35)

Chucky 🫂's avatar
Chucky 🫂 1 year ago
It takes time to get to the point of not caring about the price. I was legit surprised to hear how some of the hodlers that I personally know find price swings very difficult to deal with. A first cycle would do that but then, once the knowledge is obtained, swings are more of an entertainment rather that a roller coaster of emotions. Well, apart from the thrusts up, those are especially fun to see 😉
It took me years to stop thinking in fiat terms but very liberating when just thinking in sats. All about long time horizons
I’ve been stacking for 3 years now. Hopefully in another 7 years I’ll have enough to live off sats. But I do find myself following price predictions and so on. Alot of it is because those around me don’t hold btc or stack. Fellow plebs are a support group for me 😅👍🏽
One by one. Bitcoiners arrive wäre Monero Waits for them for years. Bitcoin and Monero never were about the fiat price. Thdy always were about adoption as alternative cypherpunk currencies.
BoomTown's avatar
BoomTown 1 year ago
A consideration, @Dr. Jeff … participating in the real economy - not running a hedge fund, podcast, newsletter, VC fund, digital start-up, etc. - requires a certain amount of confidence around the price for capital investment purposes. For example, if I owned a farm and was wanting to build out new fencing to expand my cattle operation, I would have to understand what the conversion rate is going to do over the next few years to understand the “best” time to make that investment. It is actually critical to bitcoin’s viability to most of the real “doers” in the world that they understand and be able to “plan” (at least loosely) around purchasing power movements. Alternatively, we just all wait for hyperbitcoinization to reprice all hard, physical assets in a stable Bitcoin conversion rate … that could be quite a long time to materialize during which time the real world “doers” are just stacking & hoarding sats while waiting.
My thoughts exactly. Bitcoin will do what it’s mathematically supposed to. Focus on enriching pleb culture, the circular economy that Nostr empowers for the trials by fire ahead. ✊🏼
If you mentally do the thought process as to how we get this price data you end up seeing that it's just snapshots of exchange buys and sells. It's not the street price which can be a lot higher depending on your circumstances. The UTXO management. The memorial fees for transactions. Those are metrics that make sense and will be more important as the buying power of Bitcoin increases. The best rule of price discovery is only use small transactions to familiarize yourself with use and do not buy large things in the Fiat thousands because you will be throwing away your Bitcoin. Experiment with the technology. Ignore the Fiat exchange because the technology awareness increases your own ability to empower yourself by playing around. Send transactions back and forth to yourself. Open a new wallet with you xpub to see that you can access your corn different ways. Run Bitcoin core as a full node. So much to learn and do. Stay fresh buy investing in your Bitcoin education.
Weimariffic's avatar
Weimariffic 1 year ago
Thanks, bookmarked in my “Obvious truths I already know, yet need to be constantly reminded of lest I lose my mind” folder.
Focus on creating value for your community. Build shit. Make art. Be inspired. Be a force for good. Enrich someoneelses life.
Fabian's avatar
Fabian 1 year ago
Question: I need to automate the daily buying with 7 weekly plans. How big is the win of a daily cost average vs. a weekly vs. a monthly in the past on Bitcoin? Are there any statistics from the past?
This is what you have been sharing for years. Seems like any price prediction only strengthens the legacy system. Complete ignore of fiat would be a better approach than predictions.
Maybe Later's avatar
Maybe Later 1 year ago
Just did this this week. I just removed 2/3rds of the podcasts that I listen to that were BTC focused. Ready to sit back, chill and not care. 2025 will be a brain cleanse.
Agreed. It’s painful scrolling through threads about price this cycle for some reason Maybe because you see people talking about “selling the top” and makes me want to cringe
I think it might be a good idea for Bitcoins to get back in the fight. Don’t forget this is a revolution and State Street is still trying to come out on top
I'm more interested in the fiat liquidity waves from the perspective of systemic fragility and its impact upon geopolitics. And global supply chains of real goods. They are hard to predict given how much of a black hole the global Eurodollar market is, but there is sometimes some interesting information just ourside the event horizon. As for what that means for bitcoin price...given that I DCA if anything it only is relevant for some orange pill convos with precoiners. If anyone gave a 1 year price target on anything else that was up in a range of 150% to 900% they'd be laughed out of the room, but with bitcoin, its par for the course.
this sounds like the Buffet strategy of selling put options, so he gets to earn a premium on his cash in exchange for the promise of buying the asset if it drops to a target value. I wonder if the 5 % River interest matches what a put option premium would look like on a Bitcoin ETF, if there is such a thing
curt finch 's avatar
curt finch 1 year ago
it is 3.8% but the interest is in bitcoins so eventually it turns into 38% I think I had not thought of selling puts like that that's a cool idea