Argentineans:
What would you say are the second and third order effects of inflation?
Particularly interested in non-price related effects.
I have some thoughts on this but very curious to know what you’ve observed.
(Writing in English because I want this to be useful to non-argentineans to learn from)
Boost tagging argentineans for visibility.
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Replies (39)
The poorest suffer the most. They eat worse food and health issues increase. More deaths happen.
For middle class, they stop doing many things that are more expensive now, for example traveling or hobbies. More depression issues overall. Worries about the future, or about falling out of middle class into poverty.
The rich, they are not affected as much. They keep investing and are protected.
IMO The most insidious is the psicological effect in the time prefference.
Years of inflation foster short term thinking, the anthitesis of delay gratification. You are economically incentiviced to take debt, finance every purchase and in general being short minded and impulsive. Is known that the hability to delay reward is a predictor of life long success afaik and is obvious that traning yourself to do the exact opposite is not a good.
Dissclaimer I don't have formal proof for this (though it will be interesting to know of there are any studies on inflation and effects on psicology)
The feeling that there is no hope. Nothing can be planned. And the feeling nobody can solve this.
Thanks, if you know more argentineans here please tag them 🙏
Good day Pablo. It is a complex issue. I think the biggest problem a lot of times is not having price references. One can walk one neighborhood or another and find different prices for the same products.
There are months when there is a lot of price volatility and many people or factories do not have price references for what they need to consume or produce. Or directly there is no sale until they settle again. People sometimes speculate and climb wrecks because without any reason or parameter. It is difficult to maintain a production chain.
Nor are we in a country where everything is wrong. In fact we live in a paradise that I invite you to visit whenever you want. Many times salaries go up the stairs and inflation up the elevator as an old saying goes.
It takes a lot of financial education to survive in an inflationary environment without it affecting you. And unfortunately most people don't have it. I'll give you an example.
One can go shopping with credit card and pay. Your credit card will be charged next month to your account. In that month let's assume that there is 5% inflation. But you decide to pay for those purchases put it in a fixed bank term which gives 91% per year and 140% in compound interest. Next month you will pay the credit card and absorb that 5% inflation. But with the money of the monthly profit in the fixed bank term you have made a 6% profit even paying the card. Many people are afraid to take on credit card debt for a month. But the ponzi party always It has weaknesses to exploit.
I don't think dollarization is the solution for us, it would just be to change one ponzi scheme after another. I have been lucky enough to meet #Bitcoin and hopefully more people I hope will soon. There's no second best.
We look forward to your visit to make you a barbecue with wine 🍷🔥🥩🥓. I leave you pictures of our beautiful country and his people.


Thanks for this great response y gracias por la invitación. Te agarro viaje con el asado 😂
Te esperamos cuando quieras amigo. Solo DM y armamos asado y vinito.
Good day fellow Argentinians.
As you can see on my profile I’m from Venezuela, and let’s say I have a “master degree” when it comes to live in a inflationary environment.
What it’s being said about taking debt it’s totally right, one can navigate the waves easily while knowing for sure that the money is going to inflate. In order to survive one must take a high time preference, meaning, one most buy as much goods/services as possible with the weak money, and take debt to buy the things before everything “goes up”.
There is no escape (well, for the ones that doesn’t now about Bitcoin) more than getting dollars/euros.
If history rhymes and this countries are playing the same game I’ll tell you what it’s next:
-Your money in local currency will depreciate even more (kinda obvious)
-government will start “controlling prices” making everything go up even more for those goods that are imported
-government will start putting a number on how many things you can buy per persona
-government then will blame US/CHINA/RUSIA (or whatever enemy they have in their playbook) for high prices, deflecting the attention of the masses towards them and not the fact they’re stealing and malversing with tax payer money and the country resources
-After a very long period of scarcity, everything will “go back to normal” until you see prices going up again
-Then slowly, merchants will start dollarizing more and more until your salary is in pesos and everything else is dollarized
-what’s next it’s even worst. The dollar in Argentina will inflate too. One thing that cost you $100 now will cost you $120 (don’t ask me how but that’s what happened in Venezuela)
-and that’s it, for now. That’s the current Venezuela
With this I’m not trying to scare anybody, just be ready. It may happen the same way or Argentina will play better than Venezuela has (that I really hope). Leaving one’s country and become and inmigrant is never the same.
In the mean time, stay strong and buy some fucking Bitcoin if you haven’t. It will be more stable than pesos and won’t have as much control from the gov as with dollars.
And my bad, didn’t read the “non price related” 😂 sorry, I’m just waking up and started my rant
Thank you 🙏 for sharing. Glad you’re on #nostr fren 🫂💜🤙
There’s also a dynamic of humans being caught-up in such an environment (being trapped on the fiat hamster wheel) that results in physiological impacts. Such as chronic stress and anxiety, which weaken the body and immune system, negatively impacting individual health as well as matters of fertility.
That’s not to also consider how such an environment incentivizes the uneducated into working long & hard hours for the majority of the day (to cover the difference in cost). Resulting in further weakening of the immune system when maintained chronically.
Made worse even further due to negatively impacted sleep, in volume and routine. Further weakening the individual in points previously discussed, as well as cognition and critical thinking.
Now, that’s not to say that the human body isn’t a phenomenal adaptation machine, but our bodies & shear force of will can only do so much.
You can't talk about inflation without talking about price related things. Also in Argentina is more complex cause the non working social class that take free money from the gov (51%+ of the population) and the peronists.
But stress about that you can't pay your bills, the gov stealing your time and future, the non working social class stealing and killing, you see things that hurts so much your heart and soul.
In my case i don't eat my lunch to save money so I have spare money to give to people who really needs it or buy food to the homeless
Te esperamos de vuelta amigo cuando gustes!
I was lucky enough to get to know all of Latin America traveling in a backpack. I only miss the north of Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela. I would like to get to know your beautiful country, its culture and its fantastic people Lou 🇻🇪🧡
Was just in Argentina for 4 months. For one, I would say it's forcing people wanting to leave to seek better opportunities.
- Missalocation of time (how much ppl spend doing financial engineering just to survive)
- overconfidence on the dollar (saving for long term in dollars)
Thanks for reading!
It’s a really fascinating country! I’d encourage you to go one day to the most touristic places, that way you are safer 🤙🏻
Of course the acceleration in consumption and desperation to spend the money would be the first order.
In second and third order is not clear.
There is something dizzy about
pricing things. And this dizziness extends to the relationship with people. And this extends to moral and ethic values.
So the social net of intertwined relationships starts to decay and feels a bit unfair in a weird equilibrium. From boss to employees to father and sons to friends and friends.
It would be long to elaborate.
Money as we know is the measurement of value. Now in he Fiat world values are corrupt and confused. Truth is twisted. Imagine adding up to that equation the time acceleration fire of an inflationary currency. It burns time. It feels like there is no time. It's a constant hurry into survival mode. Fight or flight.
Work, consume, hamster wheel mode. And the notions twist to think we only get out by working more that leads to more twisted value consumption. And the fault of it not working is people who fail at wheeling the hamster wheel. So fury arises.
So it starts to weaken threads of knitted relationships between brothers sisters owners loaners renters wives and husbands and fathers mothers and even babies.
People get resented. They suspect eachother. Who is more a con-man?
Who is ahead of the inflationary scam?
So it leads to more printing money. Because they all whine at whoever is above them in the ponzi pyramid scheme. So they all look up aswell.
And at the top there is a money printer. And it spits some notes and everyone takes them grudgingly.
And it creates this resonance of grudge resentment defense of what's supposed to be mine. But in a retrograde way:
"This notes were supposed to be mine three months ago, what the heck am I doing with them now in the present?". "fuck it, lets spend them"
And it creates the stagflation aswell.
Things get smaller for the same price. Things you buy start to go cheaper in manufacturing so they loose quality. So now you cannot even trust envelopes or objects. They offer you less for more.
And in the end it's all this crazy mindstate of people going crazy. And being affected more or less by this but in the end it permeates.
This resonance is unseen by those not orange pilled.
It's a hamster wheel inside a labyrinth. And the Bitcoiners just flew up. And we saw it all from above.
Argentina 🇦🇷 is going to be interesting to watch.
Mind you. This note was sent about 8 months before Milei was president. Let’s see the reversion of the dystopia
Good start if all true:
Argentina News: In a recorded message, the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, sent a message to the country on the first national management network with announcements of profound changes in the economy and the advancement of a Decree of Necessity and Urgency ( DNU).
"We designed a shock stabilization plan that includes a fiscal adjustment program, an exchange rate policy that adjusted the exchange rate to market value and a monetary policy that includes the sanitation of the Central Bank," said Milei.
After ten minutes of diagnosis , Milei began reading 30 bullet points : "As our economic model attacks the deficit, which is the cause of our problems, we can begin today to unblock all these regulations that aim to provide solutions but that only create problems."
the president listed what the decree of necessity and urgency will have:
1. Repeal of the Rental Law : so that the real estate market works smoothly again and so that renting is not an odyssey.
2. Repeal of the Supply Law , so that the State never again attacks the property rights of individuals.
3. Repeal of the Gondola Law so that the State stops interfering in the decisions of Argentine merchants.
4. Repeal of the National Purchase Law that only benefits certain power players.
5. Repeal of the Price Observatory of the Ministry of Economy to avoid the persecution of companies.
6. Repeal of the Industrial Promotion Law.
7. Repeal of the Trade Promotion Law.
8. Repeal of the regulations that prevent the privatization of public companies.
9. Repeal of the State Companies regime.
10. Transformation of all State companies into public limited companies for subsequent privatization.
11. Modernization of the labor regime to facilitate the process of generating genuine employment.
12. Reform of the Customs Code to facilitate international trade.
13. Repeal of the Land Law to promote investments.
14. Modification of the Fire Management Law.
15. Repeal of the obligations that sugar mills have regarding sugar production.
16.Liberation of the legal regime applicable to the wine sector.
17.Repeal of the national mining trade system and the Mining Information Bank.
18. Authorization for the transfer of the total or partial share package of Aerolíneas Argentinas.
19. Implementation of the open skies policy.
20. Modification of the Civil and Commercial Code to reinforce the principle of contractual freedom between the parties.
21. Modification of the Civil and Commercial Code to guarantee that obligations contracted in foreign currency must be paid in the agreed currency.
22.Modification to the regulatory framework of prepaid medicine and social works .
23.Elimination of price restrictions on the prepaid industry .
24.Incorporation of prepaid medicine companies into the social work regime.
25.Establishment of electronic prescription to streamline service and minimize costs.
26. Modifications to the regime of pharmaceutical companies to promote competition and reduce costs.
27. Modification of the Companies Law so that football clubs can become public limited companies if they so wish.
28.Deregulation of satellite internet services .
29. Deregulation of the tourism sector by eliminating the monopoly of tourism agencies.
30.Incorporation of digital tools for automotive registration procedures
Javier Milei assured: "This is only the first step, in the coming days we will call extraordinary sessions of the National Congress and we will send a package of laws asking Congress for collaboration to advance in this process of change that society chose in a context of crisis that requires immediate action.
hey... I think inflation creates massive distortion and incentivizes wrong behaviors
- Most people, in countries like ours, don't have much to save.. so broadly speaking they simply learn that there is no point in saving, you just need to spend in whatever thing as saving money makes no point.
- But I think the worst part of having inflation is that there is no credit. Now with that, you cannot save and also you cannot buy important stuff with credit like houses or cars etc.
People's only choice is to save in USD but USD also loses value on the long run.. if you want to slowly accumulate USD to buy a house in 10 years you will lose a lot of money...
So for most people inflation is just about spending all you have, hope your salary will catch up .. struggle for some time until it's adjusted and then spend again...
I love @lontivero's diary and stories about the inflation. He's an Austrian economics wizard with a bunch of first hand experience.

GitHub
HyperInflaction/1. Introduction.md at main · lontivero/HyperInflaction
Contribute to lontivero/HyperInflaction development by creating an account on GitHub.
For me the most evil effect is that everyone is tricked into becoming a thief. With every payment you make, you steal purchasing power from those who receive that money later.
Vicious.
Psychology. Now wants to start a business because it is hopeless. 😔 @Peter McCormack
Disinvestment and poverty, in that order.
Devastating. Thanks for taking the time to write that. When you mentioned the constant confusion and fight or flight it reminded me of the strain that puts on people's health. Your body can't fight off infection or desease when your stress levels stay elevated for extended periods. People often also lean on drugs or alcohol to cope with the stress.
It is because soon the dollar won't save you either...
The US dollar will drain your natural resources. The US will endlessly print money to buy your resources. As they do your classes of your people will divide into more disperse upper, middle and lower classes of people. As the printed money filters down to the lower class it will buy them less, and they will need social welfare to survive. As your upper class requires more dollars for your resources, the US will print more $ and send them to you. No skin off them. They have a license to print endlessly. Your food supply will be bought up by the US for amounts of dollars that makes it non-sense for your producers to sell there product into your own economy, therefore starving out your lower class, or at least providing to them a inferior source of nutrition leading to obesity in many people in your nation. You only need to look at the lower class of America to see that has already happened to them. Bitcoin is your real defense against this scenario playing out. Force foreign money printers to buy your resources with Bitcoin. The value of your Bitcoin will rise faster then inflation.
Even as a Canadian, I have had discussions with my friends about this aspect of inflation over the past three years: our current inability to make financial plans and goals, and having a realistic shot at seeing them come to fruition. With a combined household income in the low six figures, families like mine here may not necessarily ever miss a meal or be without the basics, but goals involving any capital or that are considered luxuries like travelling to other parts of the country to visit aging family members, feel like they are permanently on the back burner. Home improvement and maintenance plans, paying off a mortgage on a house whose value is still down $60-$80k from it’s purchase price 12 years ago (largely because of the Trudeau government’s attack on the oil and gas industry here), and dreams of getting off of the hamster wheel while we still have some health and vitality left, all feel like they are on permanent hold. Wages constantly lagging 10-15 years behind inflation, employers demanding more, crammed hours per week due to downsizing, higher operating costs and unwillingness to accept waning profits, have taken away many people’s sense of optimism for what lies ahead, and the free time to make things happen. Hope for my kids inheriting anything other than a dystopian future where they are constantly on the defence against greater measures of control and invasions of privacy, is disappearing. Dreams are a huge casualty of inflation.
To me, Bitcoin, and being able to save a pittance every month in an asset that doesn’t steal from me, using funds that have already been taxed to shit, represents my current biggest hope. And even that is now being threatened through regulation and the co-opting of the asset by government and large financial institutions.
This isn’t the future I had in mind when I started working in my mid teens. And yet my boomer relatives who were closer to the money spigot in the 70’s and 80’s are wondering why us “kids”, now in our 40’s and 50’s, aren’t double-paying our mortgages every month with the salaries we are making. Ugh.
Exactly like that.
And we are lucky our purchasing power is decreasing and have not been high in decades. Because this mentality and paradigm with high purchasing power makes a tsunami of self destructive forces.
I’m still thankful to be living in a country where I’m not dodging enemy fire or worried about my family’s safety every time I leave the house, and that we are fed, clothed and have a roof over our heads. There are many others on the planet that have lost a lot more than their dreams in the past decade. I’m blessed that I’ve (so far) only had to temper my expectations for future prosperity. But how far do we let it slide before those dreams can’t come back?
Did he not drop financial regulations? You can now use foreign currency as you please - and bitcoin for that matter.
Fees are a joke. If you buy a house with Bitcoin, you pay what? $7 in fees? That's a tiny fraction of a percent in fees.
Also what are non-private transactions? Does that only mean transactions with the state or also B2B?
2nd:
- Low time preference and consumerism
- Incentivized financial engineering over working and saving
- Distorted incentives around risk management and leverage
3rd:
- Loss of faith in capitalism and the meritocracy
- Calls for revolution