The Colorado River Compact was signed in 1922. The negotiators divided the river using flow records from two of the wettest decades the basin had ever seen. They assumed the future would look like the present. They were wrong. The paper rights add up to 16.5 million acre-feet a year. Since 2000 the river has averaged closer to 12.4. Seven states and Mexico hold legal rights to more water than the river actually carries. The gap never forced a crisis because the upper states never came close to using their full share and because Lake Powell and Lake Mead banked enough water to keep the system flexible. Flexibility is quickly evaporating. Lake Mead is currently at 28% capacity and Lake Powell is at 24%, the lowest summer level ever recorded there. I farm in a valley that consistently has less water than it wants. Farms here struggle to survive through low water years like this one. My family's water rights predate the Compact and have shielded us so far, but big changes are coming. The drought agreements layered on top of the Compact since 2007 expire at the end of this year and the deadline for the states to negotiate a replacement passed in February without a deal. The federal government is now writing the new rules that will take effect October 1. The lower basin states have more people and use more water, and the upper states leave part of their share unused every year. That combination makes me think the new rules will not favor Colorado.