Lightning is pretty private if used correctly.
The argument, for me at least, is that because of how hard it is to use that way the vast majority are using custodial wallets like Wallet of Satoshi that can see everything they do (and any rogue employees, hackers, and governments that get acces to that centralized database). Similar privacy to a bank. Even non-custodial LSP wallets like Phoenix don't offer any better privacy (they admit this on their own website)
In comparison, for the average user (by definition most users), Moneros privacy is much easier to attain. Privacy from both counterparty and third parties. Not just one.
https://zapalytics.com/
https://gist.github.com/supertestnet/5bceb60d9c691da744a55dad3f60e65e#file-wallets-txt-L12
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Custodial is non-private, so most Lightning transactions are not private by default, even if it is challenging tracing them.
> the vast majority are using custodial wallets like Wallet of Satoshi that can see everything they do
This is a terrible argument. You go on all the time about how monero has better privacy than bitcoin. Imagine my reply was "yeah but most people use bitcoin." What would that prove as a reply? Nothing, except that most people don't care about monero's privacy advantages. So when I argue "lightning has better privacy than monero" and you reply with "yeah but most people use custodians" it proves nothing, except that most people don't care about self-custodial lightning's privacy advantages.
Many Monero users use light clients that leak sensitive information to the wallet operator server.
You are right but the point is that Monero bros seem to refute the fact that it can't scale either on-chain, and it will have to adopt L2s too with the same problems encountered on Bitcoin.
So eventually it's a battle of L2s with maybe here again an advantage for Monero in term of privacy but much smaller, and when come potential L3s it will be the same.
The inevitable scaling in layer for blockchain based currency make the advantage of on-chain privacy smaller and smaller as you go up the layers.
So in that context I can't see how Monero could be more than a Bitcoin side chain for spending.