Replies (35)

IMHO: no way 58k is the bottom; it will be somewhere near 100k, maybe not for sure this cycle, but for sure for the next one
I REMEMBER LAUGHING ON TWATTER AT THE FOLKS CALLING 12K. IT WENT TO 16K AND THEY SAT ON THEIR ASSES & CALLED US STUPID WHILE WE STACKED GENERATIONAL WEALTH. OOPSY!
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lonecoiner 11 months ago
58k will be to the next bear as 10k was to the last. Many will wait for it, but it will never come.
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Deleted Account 11 months ago
Do you agree with @ODELL that we are currently in a bull cycle? 2021 top was 68k. We are at 108k over 4 years later. Roughly a 50% gain over 4 years. Ok. Not bad. Decent. Just edging out inflation which is a positive! Not a fucking bull cycle by any metric though. Or are we doing copium math where we measure from the absolute bottom and the flash crash wick downs?
Not until after you see things get really crazy which I don’t even think we’ve seen much of yet. Let’s say we’re at 5% I wouldn’t expect it until 12-18 months after we’ve hit 100% on this bubble
There isn’t one. The power law model just projects the trend line (fair price), understanding that it can be below or above depending on market conditions (bull vs bear market). The bottom price is an estimate that Giovanni created from historical data, which has held up really well. I think the only time it went below it momentarily was in March 2020. As for movements above the trend line, it’s really educated guesses based on previous bull phases’ standard deviation moves.