How does mempool show this?

Block space is in low demand that's why it's so cheap

People are using on chan as SoV and lightning for tx

I see a lot of lightning TXs being fwded on my node, I think LN takes a lot of heat away from the main chain

“Fizzle out” doesn’t mean disappear, it’s perennial.

Does mempool actually only reflect VoB (velocity of Bitcoin)? Sincere question, mempool naïve.

It just reflects the demand for bitcoin blockspace

"Just" Demand for block space is Bitcoin's future security budget.

Good morning ✌️🧡 Let it fizzle out. I'll end up on the streets doing crack sold to me by a CIA asset doing hits only a homeless man can get away with. That's my plan B.

Yes, however the incentive to bring it back is huge 😎

The ironic and unironic solution is to buy bitcoin as a hedge against that happening.

Are the spammers killing Bitcoin by peeing in the mempool again? 🤤

A third possibility is that the Saylors of the world vacuum up a majority of the supply and open lightning channels with each other and we continue seeing minimal activity in the open. In fact it’s feeling like a likely outcome. They don’t want public scrutiny of their transactions any more than we do and they’re in a position to offer settlement to central banks. Fiat Conf 2026 with all those politicians is the canary.

Yup… and the more people realize this, the more people get to work on actually making an energy-money future happen

Saving Bitcoin is using Bitcoin. Sending Bitcoin is not the only way to use it. An economy of spenders is not the end all be all sign of a healthy economy or money. Fiat encourages spending, good money encourages savings therefore good money will have less transactions than fiat for awhile.

Eu sou leigo no assunto. Ele está criticando o #bitcoin ou elogiando? Alguém por favor me esclareça por favor

Bitcoin is growing up. I think that this growing up stage was inevitable but that the Bitcoin emerges from it is not. I think NGU is baked into the incentives so I have no doubts around that aspect, at least over the next decade. It's more the decentralised & permissionless aspect. Will these b properties continue to be valued as the wider population accepts Bitcoin derivatives over UTxOs? Upholding the principles that allow for it's permissionless use are inefficient but critical for solving the money problem. Will a small group of psychopaths be able to uphold these principles as bitcoiners exercise their newly acquired optionality? I don't know. I know the lines that I will not cross. Blacklisting addresses over QC fears is one such line. It will be interesting to see where this goes & how it's resolved but it actually doesn't worry me. There's something divine about magic internet money that leads me to want to trust the process, however it unfolds.

Expensive fees = "bitcoin will die, its unusable as cash" Cheap fees = bitcoin is dead, no one is using it as cash" Its not that big of a deal. All of the high fee times historically were caused by moving on, off and between exchanges or "defi". Day traders buying on coinbase and sending it to FTX to gamble on shitcoins. There was never an actual bitcoin circular economy using blockspace enough to cause a noticable increase in fees. That's mostly dead now, and even a ton of the inter and intra-exchange bitcoin moves are down because of ETFs where no bitcoin ever changes hands. Even if a billion $ worth of bitcoin gets sold on grayscale and bought on blackrock, it will not result in a single on chain TX because both custody it at coinbase. I'd be willing to bet the actual bitcoin economy (excluding drugs) is as big as it ever was, but a lot of the real ass bitcoiners shifted largely to lightning (in terms of number of TXs, even if not in total volume). Just take all the people on nostr for example. We've all sent more zaps than total onchain transactions in all the years before nostr. The whole point of small blockers and lightning was that 1mb would be enough for a shit ton more traffic by moving most of it off chain. We've seen exactly that.

i fully agree. the majority of my transactions now take place over lightning. I only use onchain for larger amounts/savings. Lightning = payment layer. On‑chain = settlement layer

Bitcoin is resilient.