Replies (30)

We can’t be in denial any longer. Things are different now. The plumbing is different now. Vol may spike a little bit later in the year, but I’m struggling to see anything resembling a previous cycle. The data is in; we have to adjust our expectations and forecast accordingly.
Bison's avatar
Bison 6 months ago
Premature exuberance
antifragilemoney's avatar antifragilemoney
The problem with major custodians Coinbase, BitGo, Fidelity, is that any bitcoin held is tracked in a private, centralized, manipulatable database. Not subject to outside verification & public scrutiny (of entire holdings). This tees up a perfect follow up for the timeline; Mt Gox, FTX, ....
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errant's avatar
errant 6 months ago
Idk going from 15k to 120k is pretty good…
Timekeeper VI's avatar
Timekeeper VI 6 months ago
I wish we could get Coinbase and Blackrock to show proof of reserves, but Bitcoin adjacent companies like Strike dont show it either so we will likely have a market downturn due to fractional reserve purchasing first. The best lessons are sometimes the hardest to learn.
Agreed, this already has been the worst performing bull market in Bitcoin’s history. Things will either get extremely over heated towards the end of the year or big money has zapped volatility. Another possibility is this thing just continues to grind up and to the left, lulling retail to sleep.
The days of 10-20X in a year are long gone. Heck, 5X years may be a thing of the past too. A 3X in a year seems like as high as we will see moving forward. I’m happy to be wrong.
We have yet to wake up every morning with a higher price for more than a few days. That ain’t a real bull