Replies (61)
Yes. The belief that conservative parties are good economic managers is a lie. They are all playing Keynesian games.
The show must go on.
Exactly what I was thinking.
Yes, it was the covud stimulus package, and that was under Trump.
We need to stop using CPI for inflation and just look at money supply growth.
Also Musk keeps saying that reigning in gov spending will solve it. The problem is much deeper than that.
I think that alone should be enough to temporarily dismiss his honesty about Bitcoin.
Zoom out further, gotta add Bush and Obama in there too…all of them.
I wrote long-form articles anticipating inflation before it happened based on the lagged outcome from the fiscal/monetary impulse, and then called for a period of disinflation from around the top (but still with structural inflationary pressures thereafter, which I continue to monitor).
Regarding macro, I got some things right or wrong, and sometimes had to pivot as new information or analysis compiled as we all have to do, but inflation is the key thing my analysis absolutely nailed. It's part of what 10'x my audience.
And a key reason for that was because I was non-partisan and non-biased in my analysis. During the Trump administration I began calling for inflation with a lag, and then during the early Biden administration I continued to call for it as it materialized, until the conditions for it began to ease.
A rapid growth in money supply is a leading indicator for a rapid growth in aggregate prices, and that started under Trump and continued under Biden. I was Monetarist and Austrian in my analysis, not Democratic or Republican.
Walker is largely correct, because Monetarists and Austrians are largely correct. Politics aside.
The reason I say that "nothing stops this train" is because 80-90% of the deficits are election-independent. If they were mostly election-dependent, then the train would be stoppable, and I wouldn't make the memes.
View quoted note →This is objectively and macroeconomically correct.
Too much dollars chasing too few goods
Yes, printing money out of thin air has bipartisan consensus.
I keep wishing they’d take the next logical step and talk about THE SOLUTION!
BITCOIN is the way! They just don’t get there…
I’m going to frame this and put it on my wall 🫂
Exactly. The LAG allows Trump to blame Biden, but most of the of inflation under Biden was caused by Fed monetization while Trump was President.
However, monetary inflation does NOT cause general price increases IF growth in GDP is equal to or more than the monetary inflation.
Why fact check Donald Trump? Just assume every single word is a lie, and go from there.
Says the guy who exists on NASA contracts and EV tax credits.
One hundred thousand percent...
Like inflation.
Yes, Trump was even bad even before the covid response. Both sides need the money printer brrrrring, neither side wants smaller government.
Could it be that Clinton / Gingrich are the best American political tandem since 1971?
This.
The guy is a pathological liar and career scammer.
It's good people are asking the right questions and finally taking notice.
Would have been the same with both of them
Bringing Community Notes to Nostr 😒
Important factor that people should understand is that bank reserves is not money creation in the real economy. That comes from a function of commercial bank lending activity, or fiscal spending
In spring 2020, I bought dozens of $10 trillion Zimbabwe notes and gave them away to friends - hoping to teach them about the perils of fiat. Today, those notes are up over 400% on eBay and a far better store of value than the dollar.
I remember Trump, Mnuchin, J-Pow, Kashkari, et al diluting/deleting dollar holders' purchasing power back then and will never forgive them.
Inflation is theft.
Sí
The solution can't be political.
We're just getting started. #Bitcoin
View quoted note →Correct. Caveat M2 FRED report on economy is only slightly better than Pfizer's vaccine efficacy report.
So, if Trump had spent that money on infrastructure, rather than tax breaks for the rich and PPP loans, current price inflation wouldn't be as bad.
I think so.
Inflation is always up and to the right. Doesn’t matter who the president is..
Well maybe not. Maybe he could have signed executive orders to stop congress raising the debt ceiling or something. That oughta do it
Point taken. But expansion of M2 is not the same as inflation.
It sure can lead to one, but a health economy expands M2 as it grows
Will the last 2 lessons be landing soon
@walker ?
Wait where is the "Trump good, Biden bad" message that the cointards are pining for.
I'm not from your country but does the president answer to congress and not the other way round. You know, like a civilized country.
Yup. As a bystander, i think trump’s announcement of his standpoints have gotten much more neutral and sensible e.g. on abortion and education.
But as a politician, he still conveys certain messages in an (intentionally) extreme manner. Probably needs to continue brainwashing people using exaggerated statements like above.
I see so much willful ignorance around this point it drives me nuts. You could show Trump supporters M2 with his presidency highlighted and they still wouldn't accept it.
True but he Got played on the covid scam. He shut down the country and had to print.
What in the M2 between 2017 and 2020 ?
from 13T to 15 T, still pretty bad.
Yes he fucked up.
But I would say to defend him that was probably due to tax cuts. I personally support tax cuts funded by the money printer.
The ultimate scam is trillions of funding to friends of.the regime funded by money printer
Nah M2 expansions is inflation
Only BTC fixes this…
In gold terms they did somehow manage to hold the dollar value pretty stable. But that's over since about 2020.
You're right, there are a few things to consider.
It doesn't matter who becomes president of the United States, However in order to have "deflation" or reduce "inflation" one of the only key metrics that can have a major impact on "price" is energy costs.
Reduce energy costs and the cost of living goes down, and the standard of living goes up.
All of these "climate" "activists" that want to dismantle the fossil fuel industry and cripple our current energy supply chain without building the new one are retarded and are a part of the woke mind virus anti-human death cult trying to kill everyone through authoritarian control policy and want to destroy us all through suicidal empathy.
End the FED.
End fiat monetary printing.
End the control of the Jewish owned central banks.
You had me at Trump just said + false, but thanks for the explanation anyway.
Yea, there are few people closer to the money printer than Musk
Yes! Thank you for your patience. Been hitting the Bitcoin Talk episodes hard…
Agreed. But had the leftist Governors not enslaved their populations over a virus merely 99.9% survive, things would have been a hellluva lot better as far as many states go.
We in Michigan took MILLIONS to Indiana, Florida, etc; to get some freedom.
I drove to Florida 5X’s during the Bullshit (because I would not wear their slave mask to fly).
All politicians fib, lie, embellish.
As a libertarian I’d much rather have a Rand Paul or Thomas Massie, but I’ll take 3/4 or 1/2 a loaf…
Yup, doesn't matter who is in charge of the money printer. At this point, whoever it is will keep printing to keep the fiat system afloat.
The lag makes sense to me. Can you explain why GDP growth prevents price increase? Or link an article or something?
@walker @Lyn Alden Let’s say the economy (GDP) is represented this year by the harvesting of 10 apples, and that is the whole economy. Let’s say that there are $10 total in circulation. In this case, each Apple would be worth about $1.
Let’s say there was some technological advancement and the economy was able to harvest 40 Apples in the next year. Let’s also say there are $20 in circulation in the next year. Now, each Apple is only worth about $0.50 each.
Money in circulation is generally correlated with GDP of course (money created through bank loans and central bank money “printing”, generally goes up with GDP growth) but in theory they are independent of each other.
So we had monetary inflation of 100%, but the general price level DROPPED by 50%. The actual economy is infinitely more complex of course but I think this explains the general idea.
Well the Prime Minister certainly has a big input into what is introduced in parliament through his cabinet
Agreed, thanks!!
The prime minister can introduce whatever he likes. So what. I think you haven't understood democracy.
Veto overrides are relatively rare in U.S. history. Since the founding of the country, Presidents have issued over 2,500 vetoes, and Congress has overridden fewer than ten percent of them. Here are a few key points:
1. **Total Vetoes**: As of now, there have been about 2,584 presidential vetoes.
2. **Successful Overrides**: Out of those, only around 112 vetoes have been successfully overridden by Congress.
3. **Success Rate**: This means that Congress has overridden about 4-5% of all presidential vetoes.
4. **Historical Examples**: Notable veto overrides include Congress overriding President Gerald Ford's veto of the Freedom of Information Act amendments in 1974 and Congress overriding President George W. Bush's veto of the Water Resources Development Act in 2007.
In summary, achieving a two-thirds majority to override a veto is difficult and rare, requiring significant bipartisan support.
So instead of a presidential executive order to keep the debt ceiling you want a presidential veto from raising it? Is that possible?
Yes
