With BTC's exchange rate ending 2025 down 6%, the 4 year cycle of 3 up years followed by 1 down year is officially broken.
On the bright side, Bitcoin has never seen 2 down years in a row. Let's just hope that pattern isn't broken in 2026!
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Replies (22)
#btcfail
I honestly want another year to stack cheap sats 🤝
👀
> down 6%
HFSP 😂😂😂
Red red red green now
I would be surprised if we didn't get a green year in 2026
Bitcoin has followed a power trend consistently, which is how networks typically grow. Current price of $88k is below the trend (~$114k on my model, varies a bit depending on which data was used to fit the model) and Bitcoin has been this much below the trend only about a third of the time in it's history and well within normal variation. In one year the trend sits at $158k and to the current price level will be at the 5th percentile meaning that the price typically is above that level 95% of the time. Obviously network growth is not the only thing affecting price but these other factors are the drivers that push the price either above or below the trend.
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How many years are you in Bitcoin?
Are you really still holding on models and patterns to determine or predict the future?
Power law is th next model to brake..
Q4 peak in the post halving year. Same as every cycle.
Since 2012 and all models are bullshit. I'm glad the cycle is broken because I kept expecting it to break in previous cycles and was more surprised that it didn't.
I’ll take another 6% or so if that’s the setup.
Yeah I know you are and that's why I got surprised by you being surprised 😂
"The braking models" is itself the last model bitcoin will brake in its finale stage..
On the down side you're loading the blockchain with spam.
Spammer faggot
“I explain everything clearly on Telegram—feel free to reach out. 
Telegram
Clara Austin
Bienvenido a la plataforma masajeame en privado para explicarte
Telegram
Clara Austin
Bienvenido a la plataforma masajeame en privado para explicarte
Did you not just:
Going Nostr only for a bit. Kinda burnt out on rage bait and whores. Happy new year, y’all.
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This really just looks like there are not enough people getting introduced to Bitcoin.
And…?
Burnt out on rage bait...
What are you doing? 😅
Calling Jameson Lopp a spammer faggot is not rage bait. A million AI slop articles about trans story hour is rage bait.
I think it is not that important who writes a post. But reacting with slurs is kind of uneducated behaviour.
And slurs are defnitly in the range of rage post. This is hard to talk it away.
I agree 100%. You’re right.
I am surprised of you 😘