Back in September I publicly offered to enter into a wager with anyone who was claiming that Bitcoin Core v30 was going to result in a massive node crash / network outage. Nary a Knotzi took me up on it, to my great chagrin. Today I'm making a similar, but better, offer to BIP-110 supporters. I propose we enter into a trustless fork futures contract. I'll take the side that will make the deposited BTC only spendable if BIP-110 fails, you take the side that's only spendable upon success. Minimum 1 BTC wager to make it worth my time. Come take my coins and show us your conviction! Who will have the guts to put their money where their mouth is? @Bitcoin Mechanic @Luke Dashjr @Matthew Kratter @Knut Svanholm ∞/21M @hodlonaut @Renaud Cuny

Replies (39)

1776's avatar
1776 9 months ago
Shut the fuck up Lopp. No one took the wager because that was never the concern. Intellectually dishonest as usual.
This is retarded. One's beliefs on whether the UASF will happen and be successful is a separate thing from the belief about what is the best use/design of the protocol. Unwillingness or inability to acknowledge this difference is just proving the point many have been making about your character and motivations.
I'm gonna interpret that as a no, you have no conviction to put skin in the game. Talk is cheap and your words have no value to me.
Aside from the metaphor making no sense, the goal of BIP-110 is a soft fork rather than a chain split / hard fork. Even if there is a chain split there won't be replay protection. Thus you're spewing nonsense.
People putting up their coins in a bet doesn't affect the outcome, but rather signals their belief in the likelihood of the outcome. Nothing achieved except for maybe posturing. Not to mention the amount of people who actually have 1 BTC. Extreme privelege to have that much, when probably most plebs new to BTC are just getting by. The people who support the thesis of "BTC should be only monetary transactions" are the kind who think BTC is the best money, so are not going to be willing to be so flippant as to make a bet to prove whatever it is you think you are proving. In fact, locking one's funds up on such a bet can immediately change one's incentives. Now that person would be more likely to convince people of their side through deceptive or underhanded means to prevent them from losing such a large bet. Real shitcoing/crypto energy, which I guess is to be expected. How is this not obvious?
It sounds like you don't understand the game theory behind forks. It's entirely based upon economics. A bet won't change the outcome, but it provides a strong signal as to how the fork factions are economically weighted. TL:DR if the only folks supporting a fork are a handful of poor plebs yelling at clouds, we can expect the fork to fail.
You don't NEED to do anything, but consensus game theory is ultimately economic in nature. Knotzis won't be able to push miners into doing their bidding unless they have sufficient economic power to reject blocks of which they disapprove and thus ensure that the miners can't realize revenue. Your non-economic nodes can reject all the blocks you want and miners won't care at all. The fact that Knotzis have zero economic conviction tells me everything I need to know about how this fork is going to go.
Marcus Satbard's avatar
Marcus Satbard 9 months ago
Man, I have been looking for a single BIP‑110 promoter who doesn’t consider it a shitfork for over 3 months. I’m willing to swap smaller amounts via a trustless (on‑chain) multisig. It turns out, they’re all full of shit liars who push others towards a fork that they don’t believe will succeed.
If I may; the use of a term such as 'knotzis' might be mildly amusing but it's also part of a cultural change which is accelerating our decline in standards. We can have disagreements, without ever reaching agreement, without the use of absurdist name calling. It's better when we don't do that.
Time Chain's avatar
Time Chain 9 months ago
I ami'm confused by the phrase "economic conviction". My node is lighter to run, and costs me nothing to change clients. I relay the transactions that make sense to me, and I encourage others to do the same. If nobody follows me, then the rest of the network can have clogged mempools that need a plunger. Keep in mind, I don't even have to run a node in the first place. It's a volunteer system.
"Knotzi" is the perfect term because they're authoritarians who seek to only allow "pure" Bitcoiners to use the network. 🥺😆😅😬🤣🫠
Time Chain's avatar
Time Chain 9 months ago
By "pure Bitcoiner" are you referring to monetary users? I would argue that the mempool.space clogging jpeggers with their 0.1 sat per vbyte "transactions" are making node running not fun anymore. I have my 2023 prune=550 snapshot zipped around 5 gb now about 13 gb in 2026. The UTXO bloat from all this unfun garbage is filling up my RAM and disk and I am not a "Knotzi" for choosing a peaceful separation from jpeggers. If you disagree, you are welcome to relay it, store it and promote it. As for me, I enjoy my light, suckless node.
Bilthon's avatar
Bilthon 9 months ago
Because these people are otherwise wasting everyone's time whining about something they have zero conviction about. They don't have to do anything, but since they also won't shut up you'd expect them to be willing to act when it's required.
I love the idea of pre-30 Bitcoin nodes living forever now. If there are crucial soft forks in the future, but they're built on post 30 or knots, I just won't run them. Bitcoin devs cooked themselves on both sides in this debacle.
Correct. If we engage in a contract, I'll follow you and blast the news across all my networks. How much are you willing to deposit? I'll match pretty much anything.
Yeah I've heard that one before. Folks are free to believe that, it just shows a lack of understanding in the importance of economic signals. Of course, by abstaining that reveals an economic signal itself. I'm assuming that was your explanation for abstaining.
No shit, my policy is to block cultists and clankers. I will once again presume that this is your way of evading actually committing to a wager that you know will result in the loss of your bitcoin. image
Practically speaking, I don't expect a chain split until August and when it happens you won't be able to "sell the BIP-110 side" of the fork because no services will support it. It won't be safe to use due to the extremely low hashrate and lack of replay protection. It will be a DOA fork.
LMK's avatar
LMK 8 months ago
I heard that's why his lazer eyes are blue.... because he's a shitcoiner... heh heh heh 😏
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