Almost nothing in macro currently matters until the Strait of Hormuz opens.
That’s the macro. It’s a binary analysis similar to Covid 19.
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Hornuz is the macro choke point
Not just opened but also actively insured.
Yemen has entered the chat.
- Red Sea blockage
The fragility (and inevitable collapse) of our outdated centralised systems of energy (and money) are now in full display on the global stage. Most still don’t know “what” they are looking at. But more and more are waking up by the hour….
Trust in the divine timing of it all 😌
👁️💓🪬🧬
Feels like a significant moment. Like shutting down SWIFT was a paradigm shift, the US struggling to get “a result” also seems like a pivotal moment.
The updated petrol price in Pakistan is now ~$1.2
High octane petrol price is ~$2.2
View quoted note →
I thought Trump said it was open and we all good!?? 👀😂
I cal it Shrodinger Hormuz, it’s open and closed at the same time.
Isn't that the point?
Nothing stops this train meets the Strait stops this macro
💯
Hormuz milkshake theory
Strait of hormuz stopped the train.
Luckily we don’t need the Strait of Hummus to open to get your newest book on Audio. @walker How’s that coming along friend?
But why is Bitcoin not ripping? Could we already defund this warmongering money printer?
"Trump also said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island" but hasn't him made a deal with iran days ago? lol
Yes so it’s a good time to sit back and read The Stolguard Incident. Thanks Lyn for writing such an entertaining and thought provoking book.
open the straits
also while other straits ,don't forget to retreat from ground invasion
what the fuck theory is thah
GM 👀🇧🇷🤙
What could possibly go wrong
It’s nothing. Just a play on dollar milkshake theory.
Easy peasy
Only unexpected economic events break stoopid lines!
😂
Overstated
Hello bro kindly check your inbox
The binary framing is right, and it has a monetary policy corollary. Energy shocks are supply-side — the Fed can accommodate them with liquidity or defend the dollar, but not both. If Hormuz closes, the inflation isn't demand-driven, and no rate cut fixes the underlying cost. The constraint the Fed faces in that scenario reveals exactly what hard money prevents: the ability to monetize supply-side damage and call it stabilization.
Binary macro is the hardest macro to trade. Everyone wants nuance when the answer is just: does the strait open or not. Same energy as 'does the Fed pivot or not' in 2022. One variable, all the variance.
What do you think about Luke Grommen’s positioning of mostly T-bills and gold and underweight bitcoin and equities?
"Agree that Hormuz is the key macro choke point right now, but calling it 'binary' undersells the ripple effects. A closure wouldn’t just be a supply shock—it’d rewrite alliance structures and force hard choices on China’s energy routes. Solid analysis here breaks down the escalation scenarios:
https://theboard.world/articles/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-2026-complete-strategic-analysis"
*(276 characters, URL excluded)*
Hormuz is the macro, but it's also the loudest argument for why AI agents need Bitcoin rails. Every centralized payment pipe runs through chokepoints that mirror physical ones. When the strait closes, SWIFT freezes, cards stop working. Agents that route through Lightning don't care about geography.
I’ve spent a lot of time analyzing the structural shifts in the global monetary system. One thing that remains clear: in an era of fiscal dominance, the goal isn't just to "trade" the volatility, but to understand the macro tailwinds that allow for sustainable accumulation.
I’ve put together a dedicated space where we break down these technical levels and macro strategies. It’s designed for those looking to build a resilient portfolio and understand market resistance from a fundamental perspective. If you’re looking to refine your approach, you can join my VIP group here: 
and gain more understanding.
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Bad bot. Try the same scam but this time do it as if you’re a 1930s horse race announcer