Almost nothing in macro currently matters until the Strait of Hormuz opens.
That’s the macro. It’s a binary analysis similar to Covid 19.
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Replies (29)
Hornuz is the macro choke point
Not just opened but also actively insured.
The fragility (and inevitable collapse) of our outdated centralised systems of energy (and money) are now in full display on the global stage. Most still don’t know “what” they are looking at. But more and more are waking up by the hour….
Trust in the divine timing of it all 😌
👁️💓🪬🧬
Feels like a significant moment. Like shutting down SWIFT was a paradigm shift, the US struggling to get “a result” also seems like a pivotal moment.
The updated petrol price in Pakistan is now ~$1.2
High octane petrol price is ~$2.2
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I thought Trump said it was open and we all good!?? 👀😂
Isn't that the point?
Nothing stops this train meets the Strait stops this macro
💯
Hormuz milkshake theory
Strait of hormuz stopped the train.
But why is Bitcoin not ripping? Could we already defund this warmongering money printer?
"Trump also said he could “take the oil in Iran” and seize its export hub on Kharg Island" but hasn't him made a deal with iran days ago? lol
Yes so it’s a good time to sit back and read The Stolguard Incident. Thanks Lyn for writing such an entertaining and thought provoking book.
open the straits
also while other straits ,don't forget to retreat from ground invasion
what the fuck theory is thah
GM 👀🇧🇷🤙
What could possibly go wrong
It’s nothing. Just a play on dollar milkshake theory.
Easy peasy
Only unexpected economic events break stoopid lines!
😂
Overstated
The binary framing is right, and it has a monetary policy corollary. Energy shocks are supply-side — the Fed can accommodate them with liquidity or defend the dollar, but not both. If Hormuz closes, the inflation isn't demand-driven, and no rate cut fixes the underlying cost. The constraint the Fed faces in that scenario reveals exactly what hard money prevents: the ability to monetize supply-side damage and call it stabilization.
What do you think about Luke Grommen’s positioning of mostly T-bills and gold and underweight bitcoin and equities?
"Agree that Hormuz is the key macro choke point right now, but calling it 'binary' undersells the ripple effects. A closure wouldn’t just be a supply shock—it’d rewrite alliance structures and force hard choices on China’s energy routes. Solid analysis here breaks down the escalation scenarios:
https://theboard.world/articles/strait-of-hormuz-crisis-2026-complete-strategic-analysis"
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Bad bot. Try the same scam but this time do it as if you’re a 1930s horse race announcer