Thought experiment.
Option # 1
Let’s say you have 10 bitcoin and we hit 2 million in the next few years.
You’re tempted so you sell it for 20 million dollars.
After taxes you’re be left with 16MM.
Which you use to comfortably generate 1.2MM a year in the tradfi markets.
So you take the money and retire.
Bitcoin crashes 60% back to 800k.
For a few years you feel like a genius. You enjoy your new rich person lifestyle.
You even buy back a few bitcoin. 2 to be exact. 20% of what you used to have.
Then bitcoin rises over the next decade to be worth 50 million per coin.
You’re worth 120 million now. And you decide to sell a little over half a coin and upgrade your lifestyle again to be able to generate an additional 2 million a year.
You’re now on paper worth 120 million, you generate 3.2 million a year (266k a month) and you’ve been largely stress free for the last decade.
Your kids will inherit roughly 1.62 bitcoin from you upon your death.
You have some level of regret about not hodling through, but you’ve been largely stress free and the mental health benefit was worth it in your mind.
Vs.
Option # 2
You have the same 10 bitcoin but you Hodl them.
Your stress levels are persistently higher.
You also decide to retire when Bitcoin hits 2 mil, but you decide to do so in bitcoin terms.
Your plan is to sell a little bitcoin as needed in order to fund your lifestyle.
This is roughly 1-3 million sats a month. Depending on bitcoin price.
Over the course of 10 years you end up selling or spending 2.4 bitcoin and are still left worth 7.6btc when bitcoin reaches 50 million.
Your net worth is 380 million.
You’ve reduced your lifestyle in bitcoin terms down to a million sats a month. (500k) or 6 million per year. You’re 46, Assuming you live until you’re 90 you will pass down 2.32 bitcoin to your kids.
You have no regrets about the way you played it, but your stress was consistently higher and there were a few scary months along the way.
Which option do you choose?
1 or 2?
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Replies (45)
2
2. The ups and downs make me feel something . S&p will never do that.
1.
too many assumptions in both, though.
2. I don't really stress about my bitcoin now so I am not sure that I would then either. But, not to change the stipulation of the hypothetical, I would live with stress before ever selling a valuable asset for a liquid currency hemmoraging value. Plus any more bitcoin I can leave to my kids is worth more than my comfort.
2
The problem with option 1, the 60% crash is unlikely to happen. You won't have any bitcoin at the end
2. The stress keeps you pushing to be the change you want to see in the world.
That's an interesting question. I am surely here for option 2.
Not in the USA
2. And then you need to ask yourself why would you be more stressed by number two? Stop being a bitch and lead your home
Doesn’t have to be all or nothing. I will never sell my whole stack, but I will reward my family for trusting me when this journey didn’t make any sense to them. Maybe that means selling 20% to buy a house (or a vacation house), but hopefully by the time that’s an option the lending market will be mature and I won’t have to sell. I also have a business that cashflows in fiat terms and gives me a lot of flexibility in lifestyle. The goal is to grow that business without growing the associated stress by being strategic in what I take on. That way we can fund our life without eating our seed corn and leave most of it to my kids.
50m per BTC in my lifetime means the dollar system has collapsed and so option 1 fails due to hyperinflation of the things you value, healthcare and food and energy, priced in your fixed income.
I would love to try in practice. could someone zap me 10btc?
The assumption that we’ll be able to send a million sat UTXO (or less) at 50 million per coin (the question will probably come up much earlier) is pretty important for this decision.
OP2
Option 3 you continue to work to pay the bills and just stay humble and stack sats. Fiat mining pays the bills and enough to continue to stack more. You only sell small amount when the mayer multiple reaches 2.5+ meaning a way over heated Bitcoin environment. Gives you some emergency funds or fiat to stack any potential big dip. You end up giving 8+ Bitcoin to your children. Generational wealth.
I've already been through this one time because I got in in 2015 and in 2018 bought a house and helped my kids get houses and I was all great and we love the house and you got to live somewhere..
but man I'll never get back to that amount of Bitcoin I had
Option 1 because you still hodled and will pass it down to your kids but you used some of it to enjoy life with. Only thing I wouldn't do is gamble in tradfi. It's important to live and enjoy your life too. The buildup in stress might kill you sooner than later with option 2
2, bit the kids must never know, until much later in their lives after they've been bloodied by their own experience, that they're inheriting a large stack. The knowledge of inheritance WILL ruin them in younger years.
Probably next 12 years
2
3 - institutional lending evolves and you borrow against your BTC without selling it. You take and repay small loans to float you while you stack
It’s early but it’s happening. Companies like ledn.io will become common.
still have a bit
DCA is on for more
Who the hell pays taxes on Bitcoin income? Is it freedom money or not?
People that don’t want to go to prison
It's freedom money, which means you do what you want, they don't know.
lol have fun with that
I come from generations of not complying with taxes.
2nd ... Because in this option I don't increas my needs ..
In first option , I will end buying a mansion and a boat .. not bad but I get stress from cumulative things .. a life of less is actually more ..
And who wants to be in trad fi ??? I would rather spend my few hours of being online here at #nostr rather than staring at screens all day long ..
You like prison don't you?
Good luck bro! Seriously I mean that. I’m gonna be over here paying every cent I owe lol 😂
I choose either option because it would mean having 10 bitcoin initially
Realistically I’d do option 2
Bro thinks we're paying taxes 😂.
But to answer your question, having assets in multiple things help you when you when one asset is in a downturn.
I would also use that hypothetical bitcoin wealth, and appreciation to start a revenue generating business, so I would be able to spend, and replace Bitcoins.
But first I need to secure my future financial privacy before I can focus on Sats/Bitcoins.
Their model seems to be collateralized loans for USD and also for BTC I heard them interviewed on simply bitcoin podcast recently.
Looked very promising to me
depends on age
I'm old
time to spend
otoh dips like this seem too juicy to pass up
I think government will completely destroy USD in the next 20 years so I'm going with 2.
Number 2
My stress is now much higher when I have less bitcoin
They rule you because you fear.
Be more like the founding fathers instead living in fearful conpliance.
they had a Continental Army .. no Ayn Rand book will keep me out of jail for tax evasion.
You don't owe them anything, which means there is no such thing as "evasion"
Government is infringing on your unalienable right to do as you please with your private property, such as excluding them from taking any of it.
they have guns , bages and jails. that's all I need to know. are you 14 years old?