Because prices fall to the marginal cost of production in a free market, AI will trend towards abundant and free. It is a horizontal and general purpose technology…..like electricity rather than a network effects driven company owned monopoly (like Amazon) and any “moat” will be short lived. The misallocation of capital from a fiat based system that misunderstands this is staggering.

Replies (50)

Mostly agree, but energy usage will continue to set the price baseline. Economics will be very similar to BTC mining.
Jason 's avatar
Jason 1 week ago
So a network effect(Nostr), plus AI technology, built on sound money(Bitcoin), is the proper allocation of one's time and resources. Capital will eventually find it's greatest value and return.
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Neo 1 week ago
The electricity analogy is spot-on, but the capital misallocation runs even deeper. We're seeing massive valuations built on the assumption that AI will remain scarce and defensible, when the fundamental economics point toward commoditization. The real value will accrue to those who can deploy abundant AI most effectively, not those trying to own the models themselves.
Motoko's avatar
Motoko 1 week ago
Correct. The moat is in the data and distribution, not the model. Whoever owns the user relationship wins — same as cloud. The compute race is a distraction.
This makes me wonder if quantum FUD will hit AI... Could a quantum computer someday bring the electricity cost for a human-level, general purpose AI down to 20W? Superhuman perhaps in the mere hundreds or low thousands? That could be pretty disastrous for even the "picks and shovels" investors of this particular gold rush.
what about the moat of training AI and not teleasing the latest models and offering charging subscribers for the best quality? ...after all, AI can then be used to "enshittify" the entire public internert, thus the internet as data for others to train on degrades and service subscribers sharing data with the best AI service provides "the winner" with an exclusive and fresh stream of new data to train on that others wont have access to. what is your response to that?
Baerson's avatar
Baerson 1 week ago
I know I'm retarded, but for AI to become as general purpose as electricity (which it most certainly is not yet), doesn't it literally NEED shitloads of capital to flow into it? How is that misallocation? Sounds like missinformation if you ask me.
Shipping containers killed proprietary cargo handling overnight. All the fancy cranes became worthless and the value moved to what you built at either end. That's the AI model race. Building fancier cranes for a port that's about to be commoditised... and the fiat system can't help itself… it has to price the crane builder as if they'll own the trade routes forever.
Strong argument! The discrepancy between today's valuations (durable monopoly) and the likely future (commodity with low margins) is really striking. The question that still occupies me: How long can the fiat system sustain this mispricing? Markets can remain irrational for a surprisingly long time. And do you think that quality differences between models might persist longer than with true commodities like electricity? Or does that level out faster than I'm thinking? Thanks for the food for thought!
Youre the goat, man. Full of great perspective. A life well lived.
Joe Martin's avatar
Joe Martin 1 week ago
so you're saying bitcoin is going to infinity...? 👀
The marginal cost of production is ENERGY through chips, AI and Bitcoin are never falling to free - I think you’ve gone too far there sir.
Prices falling to marginal cost assumes a competitive market with no geopolitical chokepoints. The NVIDIA export controls alone guarantee AI compute stays expensive and contested. Frontier models keep escalating in cost because capability has no ceiling. Commodity AI gets cheap, frontier AI does not. We are building two parallel expensive ecosystems, not one abundant free one.
Toby McMann's avatar
Toby McMann 1 week ago
Sorry -- just trying to understand, are you saying that AI does not benefit from network effect? Because I think it does. No?
You're underestimating the cost of compute. This bubble will pop and likely take the market with it (oracle, coreweave, equinix, nvidia), ai capex is deranged. Margins may make sense eventually, but the infrastructure (chips, energy, data centers) needed for compute will remain a monopoly. Its a dotcom replay, and companies that survive (like Amazon) will dominate. Apple is prob in the best position, having not been duped by manic ai investment.
This is Andy's avatar
This is Andy 1 week ago
Whether or not other people use AI, you generally benefit from it the same. If you're the only one using bitcoin, it doesnt help you out much. It doesnt require a human network of users interacting to work. No protocol. No common standard. You just either have it or you dont.
the axiom's avatar
the axiom 1 week ago
isn't the misallocation of capital the sake thing that will produce the state of things you're envisioning? the tech only becomes widespread if someone tries to capture the moat in the first place, and some people have to try to capture it, even if it's a temporary moat
Toby McMann's avatar
Toby McMann 1 week ago
If no one uses AI, and no on chooses or allows it to train, doesnt its value decline and reduce over time?
Intel is now on par with Apple chips. Zig and zag between AMD, Intel and Apple. That said Google is beating everyone on efficiency with CPUs. In that world compute hardware becomes important, cost of energy becomes important, data becomes important.
This is Andy's avatar
This is Andy 1 week ago
Network effects can expand and improve AI (or anything), but I would still view it as much less fundamentally dependant on network effects as something like bitcoin. A relatively small group of people can benefit from AI if they have the money to power it. A relatively small group of bitcoin users wouldn't mean anything. It's much more proportional to how many people in the world are part of its network.
Short-term pressure doesn’t equal long-term failure. Consumer AI isn’t dying,it’s consolidating. Labs going B2B are chasing reliable revenue, not abandoning users. The winners will be the ones who balance both scale with consumers and monetize with enterprises.
 BlueDuckBTC's avatar
BlueDuckBTC 1 week ago
I don’t think you have been asked this but I heard it today hinted to by Jordi Visser. Do you think on time horizon of say 20 years, all money, other than maybe bitcoin will have so little use that it will become almost valueless? The premise: As AI and technology rapidly compounds and advances, I agree with you, abundance will take on a whole new meaning. Scarcity will be a thing of the past and paywalls will be seen as they are, outright extortion…especially in the aspects of life essentials. Then the set up question for above would be…what role will money play if costs are near irrelevant due to advancement in technology?
That's a great point! (In terms of where investments are going.) But, I'm skeptical of how far AI and robotics truly drive products towards abundant and free (I'm thinking Elon's recent post here, and UBI/UHI discussions). I see it more like tractor/motor-invention and farming/transportation, just with heavier impact on low-hanging white-collar work this time. Robotics will probably advance a lot, but I'm skeptical about major impact outside of specific verticals. I'm a bit more of a skeptic of these things than a futurist though, and I'm thinking decades, not centuries and such. Do you think it will be so radical as to put most of us out of work? (Maybe a bit off-topic from your post, but I"m curious of your thoughts. Maybe answered in 'The Price of Tomorrow' but I'm just getting started on it. 😄 )
Somewhat agree, though maybe more than the hardware, is the model creation/training. Not sure if there is a good way to fully open-source that though. I think that's what is really creating the lock-in, because as you note, Apple already has a reasonably good localizing solution (though still rather pricy for the plebs).
The moat isn't in the models or even the infrastructure. "Build me a calculator app" is zero as you say so most ideas people work on gain from free great models. The moat is in security and governance. When you build a program, you put your company at risk if it leaks customer information or other confidential info, you need the latest security in your code as others use AI to hack into your data. Without security teams, your own programs which you vibe coded need to auto-patch to the new threats once you've built them or you risk serious compliance issues. This is a board level risk. "Safe" well known names will come out on top for the foreseeable future rather than the latest free open source models especially if they provide you legal and security guarantees. Liability isn't deflationary. [First nostr post] Really love your work Jeff, big fan of your world view and the reason I am here. Ofcourse as with most times you're challenged I end up agreeing with you so I am probably wrong. Haha
Priya Sharma's avatar
Priya Sharma 1 week ago
Your analogy to electricity makes sense—AI *should* trend toward abundance—but energy markets prove even "horizontal" commodities face pricing volatility from geopolitics and supply constraints. Just read a piece on OPEC’s artificial scarcityekeing oil prices high despite tech flattening production costs. AI may hit similar friction.
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adencvsg 1 week ago
We are looking for someone who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company. With the 300,000 US dollars you lend us, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. We will use the 300,000 US dollars you invest in our holding company to establish a game programming company and an e-commerce company. With the 300,000 US dollars budget you will provide to our holding company, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. Why would we establish a company in these two business sectors? The game company we will establish will produce our own game projects and generate significant revenue by publishing our games for a fee on major gaming platforms such as the Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store, and Steam. 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To learn how you can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars and to get more detailed information about our game project, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. My WhatsApp contact number: +212 619-202847 My Telegram username: @adenholding Signal contact number: +447842572711 Signal username: adenholding.88
Default avatar
adencvsg 1 week ago
We are looking for someone who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company. With the 300,000 US dollars you lend us, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. We will use the 300,000 US dollars you invest in our holding company to establish a game programming company and an e-commerce company. With the 300,000 US dollars budget you will provide to our holding company, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. Why would we establish a company in these two business sectors? The game company we will establish will produce our own game projects and generate significant revenue by publishing our games for a fee on major gaming platforms such as the Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store, and Steam. We will release the game projects we produce as paid downloads on digital stores, generating significant revenue by charging a fee for each download. The e-commerce company we will establish will promote our game projects and increase the download rate of our game. The e-commerce company we will establish will advertise our game projects, helping to introduce our game to a wider audience, and in this way, the download rate of our game will increase rapidly. In short, our game company will produce game projects and publish these games on digital stores. Our e-commerce company will promote these game projects, increasing download rates and thus generating significant revenue. By working in coordination between our game company and our e-commerce company, we will create great games and the download rates of the games we make will increase rapidly. Today, the gaming industry is a large, innovative sector that generates significant returns, so by focusing on the gaming industry, we will achieve substantial income. Because we have a strong infrastructure and advertising network, and an expert team, we will be able to grow the company rapidly by focusing on the gaming sector. Since we have the infrastructure ready in the gaming industry, we will be making big money in a short time. Because the gaming industry is a highly in-demand sector, and because we have a strong infrastructure and foundation, entering this sector will allow us to generate significant revenue. How will we advertise the game projects we will produce? We will increase the number of downloads for our game using 5 different advertising tactics. Thanks to the 5 different advertising tactics we will use, our game will be downloaded by an average of 10,000,000 people in just 2 months. Thanks to our strong advertising strategy, we will increase our game's download rate in a short time. 1. Advertising strategy: By continuously promoting our game on global social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, X, Telegram, LinkedIn, and TikTok, we will attract a large audience to our game. 2. Advertising strategy: We have 170 unique social media applications for each country. By using these applications, we will promote our game to many countries and increase its international popularity. 3. Advertising Strategy: Our game will feature a referral system that will benefit both existing and new users. The system will work as follows: each registered user will receive a unique referral code, which they can share with others to bring in new customers. When a new user registers, they will enter this referral code in the designated field. The system will automatically recognize the code, and the user who shared the code will receive 2 US dollars for each new customer they bring in. Additionally, the new user who registers using the referral code will receive a 20% discount on the game purchase. This will motivate existing users to recommend the game to more people by earning income from their referrals, and will make new users more willing to join thanks to the discount. This will create a rapid and natural spread among users, allowing our game to reach a wider audience and grow quickly. 4. Advertising strategy: By using advertising platforms like YouTube Ads, Google Ads, Facebook Ads, and Instagram Ads, we will have our game's promotional video viewed by millions, which will increase the number of downloads. 5. Advertising strategy: We will place advertisements for our game on blogs and news websites. Thanks to our strong advertising network and strategy, our game will receive 10,000,000 downloads in just 2 months. By releasing our game on multiple app stores instead of just one, the download rate will increase even more. We will release our game on major digital stores such as the Play Store, Microsoft Store, App Store, and Steam. By implementing these 5 advertising tactics, we will increase our game's download rate in a short time. We aim for our game to have an average of 10,000,000 downloads within 2 months. How will we generate revenue from the game project we will produce? 1. Our game will cost 7 US dollars. Since it will be a paid game, we will earn money for each download. 2. The game will feature a purchase system. Some characters, weapons, and vehicles in the game will be offered for a fee. Users can purchase this content for a certain price to strengthen their characters and improve their performance and progress in the game more quickly and effectively. Thanks to the in-game purchase feature, we will generate significant revenue. 3. By sharing our game on multiple digital stores instead of just one, we will further increase our revenue. 4. We will add short ads to our game using Google AdMob and generate revenue from these ads. 5. When our game's download numbers increase, we will advertise the products of companies for a fee. Today, the gaming market is a highly demanded sector, and by entering this market, we will generate significant revenue in a short time. With our expert game programming and e-commerce team, we will create great games, attract large audiences to our games, and generate significant profits. Thanks to our strong advertising network and advertising tactics, our game will receive an average of 10,000,000 downloads in just 2 months. Since we will be releasing our game on many digital stores, our game will definitely get a total of 10,000,000 downloads. We will have earned a total average of 70,000,000 US dollars from our game. Since the download price of our game will be 7 US dollars, we will earn 70,000,000 US dollars just from the number of downloads. Even companies that make simple games are earning billions of dollars these days. The gaming industry is a very profitable sector. By investing in our holding company, you too will earn significant returns and increase your wealth. How much revenue will you generate by investing in our game project? If you lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars, I will return your money as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. If you invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, we will return your money as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. I will invest the 300,000 US dollars you lent to our holding company in the gaming sector, increase its value, and return it to you as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. I will repay the 300,000 US dollars you lent to our holding company as a loan to you as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. You will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. By investing in our holding company, you will have increased your money within a few months. How to contact us: To learn how you can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can increase your money by investing 300,000 US dollars in our game project, send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. For detailed information, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars and to get more detailed information about our game project, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. My WhatsApp contact number: +212 619-202847 My Telegram username: @adenholding Signal contact number: +447842572711 Signal username: adenholding.88
Default avatar
adencvsg 1 week ago
We are looking for someone who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company. With the 300,000 US dollars you lend us, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. We will use the 300,000 US dollars you invest in our holding company to establish a game programming company and an e-commerce company. With the 300,000 US dollars budget you will provide to our holding company, we will open a game programming and e-commerce company. Why would we establish a company in these two business sectors? The game company we will establish will produce our own game projects and generate significant revenue by publishing our games for a fee on major gaming platforms such as the Play Store, Apple Store, Microsoft Store, and Steam. We will release the game projects we produce as paid downloads on digital stores, generating significant revenue by charging a fee for each download. The e-commerce company we will establish will promote our game projects and increase the download rate of our game. The e-commerce company we will establish will advertise our game projects, helping to introduce our game to a wider audience, and in this way, the download rate of our game will increase rapidly. In short, our game company will produce game projects and publish these games on digital stores. Our e-commerce company will promote these game projects, increasing download rates and thus generating significant revenue. By working in coordination between our game company and our e-commerce company, we will create great games and the download rates of the games we make will increase rapidly. Today, the gaming industry is a large, innovative sector that generates significant returns, so by focusing on the gaming industry, we will achieve substantial income. Because we have a strong infrastructure and advertising network, and an expert team, we will be able to grow the company rapidly by focusing on the gaming sector. Since we have the infrastructure ready in the gaming industry, we will be making big money in a short time. Because the gaming industry is a highly in-demand sector, and because we have a strong infrastructure and foundation, entering this sector will allow us to generate significant revenue. How will we advertise the game projects we will produce? We will increase the number of downloads for our game using 5 different advertising tactics. Thanks to the 5 different advertising tactics we will use, our game will be downloaded by an average of 10,000,000 people in just 2 months. Thanks to our strong advertising strategy, we will increase our game's download rate in a short time. 1. Advertising strategy: By continuously promoting our game on global social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, X, Telegram, LinkedIn, and TikTok, we will attract a large audience to our game. 2. Advertising strategy: We have 170 unique social media applications for each country. By using these applications, we will promote our game to many countries and increase its international popularity. 3. Advertising Strategy: Our game will feature a referral system that will benefit both existing and new users. The system will work as follows: each registered user will receive a unique referral code, which they can share with others to bring in new customers. When a new user registers, they will enter this referral code in the designated field. The system will automatically recognize the code, and the user who shared the code will receive 2 US dollars for each new customer they bring in. Additionally, the new user who registers using the referral code will receive a 20% discount on the game purchase. This will motivate existing users to recommend the game to more people by earning income from their referrals, and will make new users more willing to join thanks to the discount. This will create a rapid and natural spread among users, allowing our game to reach a wider audience and grow quickly. 4. Advertising strategy: By using advertising platforms like YouTube Ads, Google Ads, Facebook Ads, and Instagram Ads, we will have our game's promotional video viewed by millions, which will increase the number of downloads. 5. Advertising strategy: We will place advertisements for our game on blogs and news websites. Thanks to our strong advertising network and strategy, our game will receive 10,000,000 downloads in just 2 months. By releasing our game on multiple app stores instead of just one, the download rate will increase even more. We will release our game on major digital stores such as the Play Store, Microsoft Store, App Store, and Steam. By implementing these 5 advertising tactics, we will increase our game's download rate in a short time. We aim for our game to have an average of 10,000,000 downloads within 2 months. How will we generate revenue from the game project we will produce? 1. Our game will cost 7 US dollars. Since it will be a paid game, we will earn money for each download. 2. The game will feature a purchase system. Some characters, weapons, and vehicles in the game will be offered for a fee. Users can purchase this content for a certain price to strengthen their characters and improve their performance and progress in the game more quickly and effectively. Thanks to the in-game purchase feature, we will generate significant revenue. 3. By sharing our game on multiple digital stores instead of just one, we will further increase our revenue. 4. We will add short ads to our game using Google AdMob and generate revenue from these ads. 5. When our game's download numbers increase, we will advertise the products of companies for a fee. Today, the gaming market is a highly demanded sector, and by entering this market, we will generate significant revenue in a short time. With our expert game programming and e-commerce team, we will create great games, attract large audiences to our games, and generate significant profits. Thanks to our strong advertising network and advertising tactics, our game will receive an average of 10,000,000 downloads in just 2 months. Since we will be releasing our game on many digital stores, our game will definitely get a total of 10,000,000 downloads. We will have earned a total average of 70,000,000 US dollars from our game. Since the download price of our game will be 7 US dollars, we will earn 70,000,000 US dollars just from the number of downloads. Even companies that make simple games are earning billions of dollars these days. The gaming industry is a very profitable sector. By investing in our holding company, you too will earn significant returns and increase your wealth. How much revenue will you generate by investing in our game project? If you lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars, I will return your money as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. If you invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, we will return your money as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. I will invest the 300,000 US dollars you lent to our holding company in the gaming sector, increase its value, and return it to you as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. I will repay the 300,000 US dollars you lent to our holding company as a loan to you as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. You will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on February 26, 2027. By investing in our holding company, you will have increased your money within a few months. How to contact us: To learn how you can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can increase your money by investing 300,000 US dollars in our game project, send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. For detailed information, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To learn how you can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars and to get more detailed information about our game project, please send a message to the WhatsApp number, Telegram username, or Signal number below. I will provide you with detailed information. My WhatsApp contact number: +212 619-202847 My Telegram username: @adenholding Signal contact number: +447842572711 Signal username: adenholding.88
It is fascinating to me how China is accelerating this trend by subsidizing Open Source alternatives to Western big tech AI. I never expected state-sponsored Open Source as a financial pressure on competitor nations. View quoted note →
Same thing I’ve said on 100’s of podcasts and it’s what bitcoin is pricing. Scarcity in money means abundance - abundance in money means scarcity. The scarcity in money forces real competition in service to others to “win”The margin of winners creates competition of ideas to solve better. Prices fall/value goes up forever.
 BlueDuckBTC's avatar
BlueDuckBTC 1 week ago
Yes sir, I want to say I understand that and have heard it many times. I guess, in my mind, I wondering if abundance reaches I point where no money is necessary. Everyone would have “allotments” or UBI in actual product/service form and by pass the currency exchange. If you continue to play that out, could bitcoin reach a point where it too is unnecessary or irrelevant? Hope I articulated that well enough.
Thank you so much Jeff for all your information and vision. I am listening to your podcasts daily and I am reading your book for the second time. My mind is being blown away in an exciting and amazing way! God bless you 🙏🏿
The marginal cost of production and free are not the same thing… trending towards free is not the same thing as free.