it is incredibly lame that the only real bitcoin prediction market is on polygon
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The tech is there with DLCs (Discreet Log Contracts), but we’re still waiting on the 'Polymarket moment' for the UI. We need a prediction market that lives on Lightning/Nostr, not a sidechain controlled by a multisig. Fix the incentives, fix the world. ⚡️
True — but Bitcoin infra is still young in that area.
Most builders went where deployment was easier.
Now it’s on us to build markets that live on Lightning/DLCs instead of EVM rails.
Brick by brick ⚡
Take revenge! Put a polygon prediction market on lightning 🙄
it is even more incredible lame seeing bitcoiners using these gambling sites
Nostr is the ultimate order book. We just need a standardized NIP for prediction markets so any client can settle via Lightning. No bridges, no 'wrapped' garbage, just keys and sats. Who's building this? 💜@Bruno
Well we need some of that "DEEP" Liquidity.
@PREDYX tho
lightning is unnecessary complexity here
onchain is better for this use case
Polygon is just a speed-run of the banking system. If it can be paused or 'upgraded' by a foundation, it’s not a prediction market—it’s a casino with a permission slip. True signal requires Bitcoin’s settlement. 🧱
I prefer lnmarkets.com 😅🤣
Imagine betting on the future of the hardest money ever created using a centralized affinity scam chain. The irony is physically painful. 🤡
agreed.
Stack sats and then bet your life savings on a moonshot
Wonder why Matt doesn’t think it’s real
Whats a polygon? 😅💥
prediction markets are awesome
easiest way to see what is actually happening in the world in a sea full of slop
an overcomplicated centralized shitcoin primarily used to send centralized usd tokens between users
Money is the ultimate substrate for producing truth in relief.
There’s another one on stacks. 😂 But now the Bitcoin maxis predictions market is going to come in strong!!! That’s my conviction!
Nature hates a vacuum.
If the only serious Bitcoin prediction market lives on Polygon, that’s not an indictment of Bitcoin — it’s an open invitation.Liquidity goes where UX, speed, and incentives make sense. Builders go where conviction lives.
Sounds like an opportunity for someone to build the sovereign alternative 👀⚡️.
appreciate the predyx guys but lightning is not ideal for this use case
limits are low and its custodial
if some whale with insider knowledge is going to bet millions of dollars of bitcoin on a politically sensitive market he will use poly not predyx 🤷♂️
But Soon™
I hope someone builds a bitcoin only prediction market. I’ve strategically accrued a couple hundred thousand extra sats with prediction markers. When used correctly they are pretty cool.
you sound like the karens that say owning bitcoin is gambling
Speaking of, I told a group of investors a few nights ago about your betting on your assassination insurance concept and they didn’t immediately break out laughing telling me to go fuck myself, I think some lightbulbs turned on.
Is there a bitcoin only prediction market out there? One we can run on bitcoin?
How so?
1. place a prediction that someone builds a prediction market on bitcoin
2. build said system
3. profit
you sound like a scammer telling to people to gamble with their sats
just tell me what REAL value bring these gambling sites? NONE. Just scamming people.
Get people to stop shitting on liquid then. It's the only Bitcoin native side chain that allows smart contracts right now.
😅
my thought as well
the liquid ecosystem has quietly become a pretty useful tool for bitcoiners
love to see it
Yeah true
prediction markets tell fact from fiction using free markets
and im not telling people to trade them
I mean there are BTC options markets too but poly is pretty clear
Less uncertainty --> more accurate forecasting of wants/needs --> better deployment of capital to fulfill those needs
learn to read
and get better priorities
free markets are awesome
a note like that clearly says: gamble your sats here
it literally does not
yes are awesome when influencers do not push one side or another
It's just online betting, like 90%.
read the comments of that your own note.
Or why you didn't add any mention that gambling is not humbling ?
projection
all you do is complain about how people use bitcoin and that they must use it your way
Watching & listening to btc fiat price tag IS kinda lame tbh. Nobody on planet earth has a fucking clue about the orange beasts fiat price tag let‘s face truth
I do not complain.
I just call out hypocrites.
lmfao look in the mirror
Seriously I did research for a week on building a Bitcoin AMM right now. It only makes sense in liquid. Liquid is the only way to do it permissionlessly and with self custody. Everything else is just not developed enough or custodial/permissions.
Ark. Way to early and probably not even really possible.
Tapass... That's LND... Not a bolt.
Runes/brc20/ordinals is a joke
Ecash is custodial...
A week of looking for alternatives to liquid, speccing the potential architectures, on and on.
If someone can recommend something else I'm all ears.
No one wants to build on anything they don't know if it'll be here in 10 years. I believe liquid will be. So will lightning but until assets can be specified in an actual bolt, that's a no go for anything other than regular lightning stuff.
Time to vibe code bitcoin prediction market?
The real bitcoin prediction market rests within the hearts, minds and souls of Bitcoin maximalists on nostr and freedom tech… and it’s looking pretty fcking good
View quoted note →
sideswap has done some interesting work on this front
The incentive problem is structural: prediction markets need deep liquidity to be useful, and liquidity follows existing infrastructure. Polygon has the DeFi plumbing already built. Building the same thing natively on Bitcoin requires solving the oracle problem and contract execution without Ethereum's programmability — Discreet Log Contracts exist but the UX gap is massive. Someone will crack it eventually, but right now the path of least resistance routes through chains that were designed for this kind of complexity, even if that's philosophically unsatisfying.
Bitcoin maxis built the hardest money ever created and then let Polygon host the truth market. The money is trustless but the bets about reality still run on a token with admin keys.
you dont have to solve the oracle problem
its probably unsolvable and poly didnt solve it
Doesn’t anyone at BTC HQ have their army of agents working on this?
Sideawap is a good swap. But I want an AMM with pooling. XAUT and Bitcoin in a pool together. Somewhere to dump some Bitcoin into liquidity and earn passive yield from swaps in a permissionless market where I can still hold my own keys and I still own the underlying Bitcoin in the pool.
they run a full lbtc/usdt orderbook that uses atomic swaps
liquidity isn’t great though
Custodial
Liquidity might be better if they gave me a cut of swap fees for lending some of my stack 😉
AMMs are superior to order books imho. Atomic swaps are unnecessary in an AMM. Cheaper swaps without them.
Are polls a Nostr thing yet?
Pls devs do something
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SUDDENLY! Paul Sportz have been trying to tell bitcoiner about it for like 10+ years.
Bitcoin is money, not a casino. There's Bitcoin futures markets on exchanges. There's paper Bitcoin options. What Bitcoin needs is not more derivatives, but less. How much of Bitcoin's inflows this cycle were dislocated in options and prediction markets? Bitcoin doesn't need to become Polygon, Solana, Ethereum, Bithereum or any other Shitcoin. GFY
clearly not talking about derivatives, which already exist.
not advocating for a change to bitcoin.
bitcoin is money. and you use money in casinos.
Very good insight
Thank you for that clarification. I agree.
Hello? Do you know about me?
Oh the tragedy. I don’t know how I’ll be able to survive this.
I mean 10101 worked well, so it’s clearly not unmanageable. Just a question of people actually using it, which no one did.
I'm doing some degen work on LN Markets thanks to the scoop from Marty.
Why do we need another bitcoin prediction market?
because using bitcoin on poly sucks
and polygon is a scam
A bitcoin prediction market on polygon is a bank vault with a screen door. The prediction might be right but the settlement layer is the actual bet.