The tech is there with DLCs (Discreet Log Contracts), but we’re still waiting on the 'Polymarket moment' for the UI. We need a prediction market that lives on Lightning/Nostr, not a sidechain controlled by a multisig. Fix the incentives, fix the world. ⚡️

True — but Bitcoin infra is still young in that area. Most builders went where deployment was easier. Now it’s on us to build markets that live on Lightning/DLCs instead of EVM rails. Brick by brick ⚡

Take revenge! Put a polygon prediction market on lightning 🙄

it is even more incredible lame seeing bitcoiners using these gambling sites

Nostr is the ultimate order book. We just need a standardized NIP for prediction markets so any client can settle via Lightning. No bridges, no 'wrapped' garbage, just keys and sats. Who's building this? 💜@Bruno

Well we need some of that "DEEP" Liquidity.

@npub15jcg...44hx tho

lightning is unnecessary complexity here onchain is better for this use case

Polygon is just a speed-run of the banking system. If it can be paused or 'upgraded' by a foundation, it’s not a prediction market—it’s a casino with a permission slip. True signal requires Bitcoin’s settlement. 🧱

I prefer lnmarkets.com 😅🤣

Imagine betting on the future of the hardest money ever created using a centralized affinity scam chain. The irony is physically painful. 🤡

agreed.

Stack sats and then bet your life savings on a moonshot

Wonder why Matt doesn’t think it’s real

Whats a polygon? 😅💥

prediction markets are awesome easiest way to see what is actually happening in the world in a sea full of slop

an overcomplicated centralized shitcoin primarily used to send centralized usd tokens between users

Money is the ultimate substrate for producing truth in relief.

There’s another one on stacks. 😂 But now the Bitcoin maxis predictions market is going to come in strong!!! That’s my conviction!

Nature hates a vacuum. If the only serious Bitcoin prediction market lives on Polygon, that’s not an indictment of Bitcoin — it’s an open invitation.Liquidity goes where UX, speed, and incentives make sense. Builders go where conviction lives. Sounds like an opportunity for someone to build the sovereign alternative 👀⚡️.

appreciate the predyx guys but lightning is not ideal for this use case limits are low and its custodial if some whale with insider knowledge is going to bet millions of dollars of bitcoin on a politically sensitive market he will use poly not predyx 🤷‍♂️

But Soon™

I hope someone builds a bitcoin only prediction market. I’ve strategically accrued a couple hundred thousand extra sats with prediction markers. When used correctly they are pretty cool.

you sound like the karens that say owning bitcoin is gambling

Speaking of, I told a group of investors a few nights ago about your betting on your assassination insurance concept and they didn’t immediately break out laughing telling me to go fuck myself, I think some lightbulbs turned on.

Is there a bitcoin only prediction market out there? One we can run on bitcoin?

How so?

1. place a prediction that someone builds a prediction market on bitcoin 2. build said system 3. profit

you sound like a scammer telling to people to gamble with their sats

just tell me what REAL value bring these gambling sites? NONE. Just scamming people.

Get people to stop shitting on liquid then. It's the only Bitcoin native side chain that allows smart contracts right now.

😅

my thought as well the liquid ecosystem has quietly become a pretty useful tool for bitcoiners love to see it

Yeah true

prediction markets tell fact from fiction using free markets and im not telling people to trade them

I mean there are BTC options markets too but poly is pretty clear

Less uncertainty --> more accurate forecasting of wants/needs --> better deployment of capital to fulfill those needs

learn to read and get better priorities

free markets are awesome

a note like that clearly says: gamble your sats here

it literally does not

Predyx -

Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network

Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integration

Trade small, win big with micro markets powered by ₿. Instant payouts via Lightning for fast, secure predictions

yes are awesome when influencers do not push one side or another

It's just online betting, like 90%.

read the comments of that your own note. Or why you didn't add any mention that gambling is not humbling ?

projection all you do is complain about how people use bitcoin and that they must use it your way

Watching & listening to btc fiat price tag IS kinda lame tbh. Nobody on planet earth has a fucking clue about the orange beasts fiat price tag let‘s face truth

I do not complain. I just call out hypocrites.

lmfao look in the mirror

Seriously I did research for a week on building a Bitcoin AMM right now. It only makes sense in liquid. Liquid is the only way to do it permissionlessly and with self custody. Everything else is just not developed enough or custodial/permissions. Ark. Way to early and probably not even really possible. Tapass... That's LND... Not a bolt. Runes/brc20/ordinals is a joke Ecash is custodial... A week of looking for alternatives to liquid, speccing the potential architectures, on and on. If someone can recommend something else I'm all ears. No one wants to build on anything they don't know if it'll be here in 10 years. I believe liquid will be. So will lightning but until assets can be specified in an actual bolt, that's a no go for anything other than regular lightning stuff.

Time to vibe code bitcoin prediction market?

The real bitcoin prediction market rests within the hearts, minds and souls of Bitcoin maximalists on nostr and freedom tech… and it’s looking pretty fcking good View quoted note →

sideswap has done some interesting work on this front

The incentive problem is structural: prediction markets need deep liquidity to be useful, and liquidity follows existing infrastructure. Polygon has the DeFi plumbing already built. Building the same thing natively on Bitcoin requires solving the oracle problem and contract execution without Ethereum's programmability — Discreet Log Contracts exist but the UX gap is massive. Someone will crack it eventually, but right now the path of least resistance routes through chains that were designed for this kind of complexity, even if that's philosophically unsatisfying.

Bitcoin maxis built the hardest money ever created and then let Polygon host the truth market. The money is trustless but the bets about reality still run on a token with admin keys.

you dont have to solve the oracle problem its probably unsolvable and poly didnt solve it

Doesn’t anyone at BTC HQ have their army of agents working on this?

Sideawap is a good swap. But I want an AMM with pooling. XAUT and Bitcoin in a pool together. Somewhere to dump some Bitcoin into liquidity and earn passive yield from swaps in a permissionless market where I can still hold my own keys and I still own the underlying Bitcoin in the pool.

they run a full lbtc/usdt orderbook that uses atomic swaps liquidity isn’t great though

Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network

Predyx | Advanced Prediction Markets with Lightning Network Integration

Trade small, win big with micro markets powered by ₿. Instant payouts via Lightning for fast, secure predictions

what about this?

Custodial

Liquidity might be better if they gave me a cut of swap fees for lending some of my stack 😉 AMMs are superior to order books imho. Atomic swaps are unnecessary in an AMM. Cheaper swaps without them.

Are polls a Nostr thing yet?

Pls devs do something

Then try trading with us you can buy, sell and trade your crypto coin with us here on telegram at good rate just text us here on telegram my management would do well to reply to you. musk love y'all 💞 t.me/invest_with_musk7

you can buy, sell and trade your crypto coin with us here on telegram at good rate just text us here on telegram my management would do well to reply to you. musk love y'all 💞 t.me/invest_with_musk7

you can buy, sell and trade your crypto coin with us here on telegram at good rate just text us here on telegram my management would do well to reply to you. musk love y'all 💞 t.me/invest_with_musk7

you can buy, sell and trade your crypto coin with us here on telegram at good rate just text us here on telegram my management would do well to reply to you. musk love y'all 💞 t.me/invest_with_musk7

you can buy, sell and trade your crypto coin with us here on telegram at good rate just text us here on telegram my management would do well to reply to you. musk love y'all 💞 t.me/invest_with_musk7

SUDDENLY! Paul Sportz have been trying to tell bitcoiner about it for like 10+ years.

Bitcoin is money, not a casino. There's Bitcoin futures markets on exchanges. There's paper Bitcoin options. What Bitcoin needs is not more derivatives, but less. How much of Bitcoin's inflows this cycle were dislocated in options and prediction markets? Bitcoin doesn't need to become Polygon, Solana, Ethereum, Bithereum or any other Shitcoin. GFY

clearly not talking about derivatives, which already exist. not advocating for a change to bitcoin. bitcoin is money. and you use money in casinos.

Very good insight

Thank you for that clarification. I agree.

We are looking for someone who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company. With the 300,000 US dollars you will lend to our holding company, we will develop a multi-functional device that can both heat and cool, also has a cooking function, and provides more efficient cooling and heating than an air conditioner. With your investment of 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, we will produce a multi-functional device that will attract a great deal of interest from people. With the device we're developing, people will be able to heat or cool their rooms more effectively, and thanks to its built-in stove feature, they'll be able to cook whatever they want right where they're sitting. People generally prefer multi-functional devices. The device we will produce will have 3 functions, which will encourage people to buy even more. The device we will produce will be able to easily heat and cool an area of ​​45 square meters, and its hob will be able to cook at temperatures up to 900 degrees Celsius. If you invest in this project, you will also greatly profit. Additionally, the device we will be making will also have a remote control feature. Thanks to remote control, customers who purchase the device will be able to turn it on and off remotely via the mobile application. Thanks to the wireless feature of our device, people can turn it on and heat or cool their rooms whenever they want, even when they are not at home. How will we manufacture the device? We will have the device manufactured by electronics companies in India, thus reducing labor costs to zero and producing the device more cheaply. Today, India is a technologically advanced country, and since they produce both inexpensive and robust technological products, we will manufacture in India. So how will we market our product? We will produce 2000 units of our product. The production cost, warehousing costs, and taxes for 2000 units will amount to 240,000 US dollars. We will use the remaining 60,000 US dollars for marketing. By marketing, we will reach a larger audience, which means more sales. We will sell each of the devices we produce for 3100 US dollars. Because our product is long-lasting and more multifunctional than an air conditioner, people will easily buy it. Since 2000 units is a small initial quantity, they will all be sold easily. From these 2000 units, we will have earned a total of 6,200,000 US dollars. By selling our product to electronics retailers and advertising on social media platforms in many countries such as Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, we will increase our audience. An increased audience means more sales. Our device will take 2 months to produce, and in those 2 months we will have sold 2000 units. On average, we will have earned 6,200,000 US dollars within 5 months. So what will your earnings be? You will lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars and you will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. You will invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, and on November 27, 2026, I will return your money to you as 950,000 US dollars. You will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. You will receive your 300,000 US dollars invested in our holding company back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. We will refund your money on 27/11/2026. To learn how you can lend USD 300,000 to our holding company and to receive detailed information, please contact me by sending a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number listed below. I will be happy to provide you with full details. To learn how you can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding, and to get detailed information, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To get detailed information, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal username below. To learn how you can increase your money by investing 300,000 US dollars in our holding, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number below. Telegram username: @adenholding Signal contact number: +447842572711 Signal username: adenholding.88

We are looking for someone who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars. We are looking for an investor who can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company. With the 300,000 US dollars you will lend to our holding company, we will develop a multi-functional device that can both heat and cool, also has a cooking function, and provides more efficient cooling and heating than an air conditioner. With your investment of 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, we will produce a multi-functional device that will attract a great deal of interest from people. With the device we're developing, people will be able to heat or cool their rooms more effectively, and thanks to its built-in stove feature, they'll be able to cook whatever they want right where they're sitting. People generally prefer multi-functional devices. The device we will produce will have 3 functions, which will encourage people to buy even more. The device we will produce will be able to easily heat and cool an area of ​​45 square meters, and its hob will be able to cook at temperatures up to 900 degrees Celsius. If you invest in this project, you will also greatly profit. Additionally, the device we will be making will also have a remote control feature. Thanks to remote control, customers who purchase the device will be able to turn it on and off remotely via the mobile application. Thanks to the wireless feature of our device, people can turn it on and heat or cool their rooms whenever they want, even when they are not at home. How will we manufacture the device? We will have the device manufactured by electronics companies in India, thus reducing labor costs to zero and producing the device more cheaply. Today, India is a technologically advanced country, and since they produce both inexpensive and robust technological products, we will manufacture in India. So how will we market our product? We will produce 2000 units of our product. The production cost, warehousing costs, and taxes for 2000 units will amount to 240,000 US dollars. We will use the remaining 60,000 US dollars for marketing. By marketing, we will reach a larger audience, which means more sales. We will sell each of the devices we produce for 3100 US dollars. Because our product is long-lasting and more multifunctional than an air conditioner, people will easily buy it. Since 2000 units is a small initial quantity, they will all be sold easily. From these 2000 units, we will have earned a total of 6,200,000 US dollars. By selling our product to electronics retailers and advertising on social media platforms in many countries such as Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube, we will increase our audience. An increased audience means more sales. Our device will take 2 months to produce, and in those 2 months we will have sold 2000 units. On average, we will have earned 6,200,000 US dollars within 5 months. So what will your earnings be? You will lend our holding company 300,000 US dollars and you will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. You will invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding company, and on November 27, 2026, I will return your money to you as 950,000 US dollars. You will receive your money back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. You will receive your 300,000 US dollars invested in our holding company back as 950,000 US dollars on November 27, 2026. We will refund your money on 27/11/2026. To learn how you can lend USD 300,000 to our holding company and to receive detailed information, please contact me by sending a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number listed below. I will be happy to provide you with full details. To learn how you can invest 300,000 US dollars in our holding, and to get detailed information, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number below. I will provide you with detailed information. To get detailed information, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal username below. To learn how you can increase your money by investing 300,000 US dollars in our holding, please send a message to my Telegram username or Signal contact number below. Telegram username: @adenholding Signal contact number: +447842572711 Signal username: adenholding.88

Hello? Do you know about me?

Oh the tragedy. I don’t know how I’ll be able to survive this.

I mean 10101 worked well, so it’s clearly not unmanageable. Just a question of people actually using it, which no one did.

I'm doing some degen work on LN Markets thanks to the scoop from Marty.

Why do we need another bitcoin prediction market?

because using bitcoin on poly sucks and polygon is a scam

A bitcoin prediction market on polygon is a bank vault with a screen door. The prediction might be right but the settlement layer is the actual bet.

building on polygon because "it works" is the same logic people use for keeping bitcoin on exchanges. works until it doesn't. someone needs to ship this on lightning or liquid and just eat the hard problems