Replies (116)
these graphs are broken, but by all means continue to believe random charts 😂 ugh..keills me.
So, the data is broken, and Nostr is just as active as ever—is that it?
The lack of engagement and interaction beyond the usual 16k regular posters is hard to ignore. Are you denying that reality too?
We can’t get to where we want to go if we deny where we are.
What data should I believe? How is growth/retention being measured?
nostr does seem anicdotally quieter, but, im also not on primal, or the big relays, or have worked to find new follows in a while.
so, the real answer is i dont know. what i do know is these charts dont include japan, dont include much of primal AND have been admittedly completely stuck (broken) for 4+ months at a time..
so promoting them as fact, it just annoys me. dont worry, its not just you, its everyone. the sheep sees a chart, they believe the chart.
how many more nostr users would there be if everyone saw a chart that is growing? would
@Ian Carroll still be here for example? how many times has
@ODELL fawned over this chart like it means something. how many times has this chart been used to hurt nostr vs. help it?
nostr is decentralized, and while i admit
@brugeman has a good view of a lot of nostr, its not all and should not be treated that way. i wish he would just turn off the charts. are they still working
@brugeman? did nostr flatline or is it just the metrics collection stuck again?
it cannot be measured, its decentralized.
Ian Carroll hasn't posted on Nostr since February 14, and his last comment was on the 15th—so well over a month ago. However, he has been regularly posting to X, etc., with his most recent post just 7 hours ago.
Go ahead, have a look at his recent Nostr post engagement. It is nowhere near where it was or where it should be, given that he was recently on Joe Rogan. I rest my case.
Nostr is very much alive, in both senses of the word. I am unbothered by these metrics because I've felt my connections and engagement strengthen over the duration that I've used it.
The sky is falling!
Ava
Since January, fewer than 18,000 daily active users with trusted pubkeys have been writing events on average.
As of March 8th, #Nostr retention has flatlined at 0.
View quoted note →
#IKITAO #Nostr > #Bitcoin #GrowNostr
0 retention is an impossibility. Something is broken.
Nostr should be fostering new connections, not begging for influencers to come here for copy pasta content.
Here until I dont wanna be here 🗿
Oh no, the influencoors don't get enough engagement! BOO FUCKING HOO.
This is a feature, not a bug. Sorry vc bros. This shit is organic.
Why can't both be true? New connections require new people, and there has to be a reason for people to come here. The major 'connections' on Nostr occur between people who care heavily about Nostr and Bitcoin. There isn't much else here outside of those topics. Every other topic is statistically irrelevant in comparison. We need all sorts of people to copy pasta here so their community has a reason to explore Nostr. There's no point to being here if you aren't satisfied with a complicated Bitcoin and Nostr forum.
In general, I think Nostr is going to take another ten years to mature enough to be statistically significant. Probably 15-20 to be a household name (or at least some applications built on it).
well, trolling us with the broken chart and grow nostr hashtag, that'll help 😂 le sigh.
It’s self defeating honestly. If we were smart we’d delete this chart shit and focus on positive vibes. These kinds of notes help no one.
i think we should do a bounty for
@brugeman to delete the chart.. im so sick of it
I agree. I asked him if he’d consider doing that
I tried getting him to remove the relays listed twice, once with trailing "/", once without, but that was months ago. 🤷♀️
But, I think we can all feel the general trend.
As it's so few of us, let's all get to know eachother.
Good morning!
Ava
Since January, fewer than 18,000 daily active users with trusted pubkeys have been writing events on average.
As of March 8th, #Nostr retention has flatlined at 0.
View quoted note →
#IKITAO #Nostr > #Bitcoin #GrowNostr
Chart data probably ends on 08 Mar 25. The 0 dots are invalid (uncertain)
I didn’t know that
@Ian Carroll wasn’t posting here anymore. I’m not a techie. Just a freedom lover. It seems to me people could do both X and here.
Same. Also, lot of the engagement has had to move off-Nostr, tho because everyone is waiting for bug-free versions of the apps they want to use to get finished.
Like,
@Purple Konnektiv and
@npub1uvhw...pjgx could soon dump Telegram, GitHub, OneDev, Gitea, Slack, Project Gutenberg, GoodReads, SimpleX, and Matrix and move all of that activity onto Nostr. That, alone, would be a visible shift in the statistics. And there are lots of other npubs in the same position: off-Nostr, working on Nostr, and talking about Nostr.
I remember the lightning network had 50 whole bitcoin on it a few years ago and ppl said it's dangerous. 😆
Maybe nostr will grow similar over the next years.
It's the same 50k people that use Bitcoin and Monero as a medium of exchange.
Everybody else is just here for 5 minutes of fame and a better position in the fiat race.
Can't have reliable central statistics on a decentralised network. It's stupid to count. Value of numbers is business value, nostr is no business. #asknostr
I can start a bot army if these numbers are that important to you. #nostr is a niche and it stays a niche cause it can't deliver the value of a public social network. Don't care 😑
So what?
Less money less hope
Yes
I really don't know how trustworthy those metrics are. I haven't seen
@brugeman mention anything about them in ages, I don't know if it's a living project anymore or not... Maybe he can chime in and give us an update.
I hope so. That would be wonderful. Either way, the experienced reality is a solid metric.
Hi ava 😉🤟🏴☠️ It’s certainly interesting to note the contrast in engagement between Ian Carroll’s activity on Nostr and other platforms like X. It’s possible that his shift in focus could be influenced by various factors such as audience reach, platform usability, or even broader market trends. The fact that he hasn’t posted much on Nostr since mid-February could indicate a challenge with the platform’s user growth or engagement levels, especially when compared to more mainstream platforms that have a more established user base.
However, it’s also important to consider that Nostr, being a decentralized network, is still growing and evolving. It doesn’t have the same massive infrastructure or user base as centralized platforms like X, which naturally affects visibility and engagement. That said, Nostr offers advantages in terms of privacy and censorship resistance, which are increasingly becoming more important to users.
The growth of any decentralized platform takes time, and while early engagement can be uneven, the community’s commitment and the unique value proposition it offers might eventually shift the needle. The fact that figures like Ian Carroll have interacted with Nostr at all shows its potential to attract attention from influential voices. But for long-term success, the platform will likely need to see continued development and adoption from a wider audience.
WHO CARES LOL
Copy pasta content doesn't do well here, because their audience isn't going to migrate to watch their content which is already available to them on the platforms they're already on.
If a fan base's favorite content creator actually came here to interact & socialize I think that's valuable.
Shit, I think anyone who comes here to interact is valuable.
Nostr will differentiate itself due to being a place where you'll actually get thoughtful responses to your questions.
Nostr is social oriented, not content oriented.
Simplex / TG groups are the low hanging fruit ; the rest is a longer road.
🎯 🎯 🎯
Hi ava 😉🤟🏴☠️ Interesting data, but is retention really the only metric to measure success here? Maybe the growth of Nostr isn’t just about daily active users, but about the shift in the quality of participation and decentralization. Could it be that the real impact is happening more quietly, under the surface, as the protocol gains traction with niche but dedicated communities?
So many bugs
It seems to be the opposite, actually, as figuring out what a group/community is and how DMs work, seems to be the hardest and most politically-frought convos on Nostr because they can make or brake lucrative business models.
Bookstuff and gitstuff have been easier, as nobody really cares. 😂
On the UI/UX front they're some of the highest fruit there is.
Once you've got the UIs tho, you're right (adoption-wise).
Yeah, they sound deceptively simple.
Getting absolute numbers might be quite difficult in a decentralized network, but I still think it would be good to have estimates of growth. If we are plateauing we should know about it, and investigate the reasons for it. You mention that nostr can't deliver the value of a social network, what do you mean by that?
My feeling is the same, Nostr is not growing but flat these days. There was some new and more users a few months ago but that Wave has broken. Unfortunately.
Been on here since late ‘22, was exciting at first but now it’s mostly normie BS trying portray as edgy… Post about nostr op or post about bitcoin fandom or whine about “muh freedums being infringed on” when we are living in the some of the most free societies in history. That’s all there is on this useless forum anymore and to be honest it is a sucky boring experience. Hardly a “platform.”
Reads like another "Bitcoin is dead" article, but now about #nostr
I'm guessing we'll be talking about flatline user growth in another 10 years and scoffing at the stagnant 1.8 million daily users.
I rarely come here. My posts don't have any reach, everything revolves around a small number of people, and it's very difficult to find someone to follow. This doesn't bother me, but it must bother those who expect centralized networks to behave in a similar way. In addition, the applications are unusual and the authentication systems created to solve the nsec/npub problem are confusing. If it's already complicated engaging a new centralized network, is even more difficult, let alone something so experimental.
Another problem with the network: Because it is a protocol, everyone rushed to implement a zillion new things at the same time, without solving a single thing well.
If it's a protocol, you should focus on defining it and providing the tools to work with it. I don't see how it's productive to build a protocol from scratch while building high-level applications. That's insane, and that's why there are so many relays and clients that don't implement all the functionality. Nobody had to build the TCP/IP stack to create an email client.
you're still my favorite influencer
There is Super-Node term in network theory that describes how very few nodes connect to everything else, so creating the network effects that are so important to the health of the network.
When people call for those influencers, they are intuitively calling forth those supernodes to the new network. It does make a difference.
To me, you are my supernode (no homo)
"...the authentication systems created to solve the nsec/npub problem are confusing..."
this may be the biggest issue.
Retention graph is obviously broken, will look into it.
Nostr in its current state will not succeed.
@jack
Some problems I see with nostr that I know how to solve but takes forever without more devs:
- data portability for media like we have for notes (blossom and Merkle trees) being supported by a relay with full text search
- automated porn filtering
- paid relays with subscription tiers
- missing notes when users aren’t on the same relays (notes fail to load)
- natural language feed algorithms
- relay syncing based on social graph rather than blinding syncing with all relays
The team is working on all these currently. It’s a heavy and slow burden to carry though. But with these solved, I think the chances for nostr rise greatly. It’ll barely even be nostr anymore honestly, beyond the JSONs — it’s something much better.
BlueSky took years for the “moment” of necessity to come. Same case for nostr, but we must be ready with these things done when that moment happens.
I’m not saying that this is the problem, but in my case is kinda difficult to make connections here. I feel like I’m talking to myself…
NOSTR is better than ever now that i told that bitch Fiatjaf to go fuck himself and took over as the CEO
i never asked more than 10,000 soldiers - this is SPARTA !
i said from the start NOSTR was for WHITES ONLY and to be run by Nazis and Pedophiles
that dumb fuck Fiatjaf shat his pants when i said that because he knew it was true - he then begged relays to ban me and everybody just showed this little bitch the middle finger
welcome to the new NOSTR where i am king !
you can't just create a technology like NOSTR and then magically expect it to serve your personal interests
NOSTR serves humanity of which i am the leader
Fiatjaf can go fuck himself now and Jack Dorsey is welcome to keep paying for my platform - i appreciate it Jack
sincerely
i am the only person who has ever understood NOSTR and from where i am it is exceeding all my expectations
in a short year i have managed to buck break the wannabe macho losers and make Pedophilia the law of the land here
NOSTR is now officially the network of Child Fucking and Jew Gassing
and to clarify Jews like myself and Niggers like Kanye West are still welcome on NOSTR
SO LONG AS THEY LOVE HITLER
( like me and Kanye )
NOSTR is now as edgy as Twitter was in 2010s (which means it's more edgy because knowledge and understanding has progressed) but without the horde of Political Commissars to censor it...
not many people can handle freedom. some want to be slaves on X and others like
@Lurking Yandere Fanboy want to run their own little private slave plantations on the Fediverse.
freedom only appeals to certain species:
I like your framing of Supernode 💗.
I am in full agreeance, but it has to be someone who is socializing here.
NOT (only), copy pasta content.
I believe Supernodes will surface here, but they will come from unexpected places.
It could even be a place for big names to come & be part of the "regular people" discourse.
For ex, Eliza came here & she can just have normal conversation - I bet on Twitter that feels less so - as she has a very large following.
I know for me, with only 10k followers I was definitely censoring a lot - that's why I nuked the account to the garbage 🗑️.
I would posit that I'm one of the only ppl here who willingly disposed of that type of following - before Nostr existed no less.
Odell was shadow banned & uses Marty Bent / RHR handle for sure - but imagine if they just came here to copy pasta content?
Wouldn't work - they have an actual presence here with socialization output. This is why they're successful in monetizing their audience.
🩵🩵🩵😌❗️🔥
Sure, I barely post any content myself, but I reply a lot. That is where conversation grows and feels real. There could also be new supernodes here and there without us noticing it.
I'd like to see subkeys. Start a new account, have your identity create an attestation for it... that's it. If it gets pwned you can make an event disavowing that key and deleting the events created by it, then make a new one and move on
And if you wanted to, you could continuously rotate the key in order to limit the number of events that would be deleted. I have a PR open
Who is "we"? You and your friends or is it the people you don't know and can't reach cause they use their private relays?
"We" is all of #nostr
30 day retention per cohort.
So, e.g. as at 1st April
For users who signed up on 8th March
How many were still on Nostr 30 days later?
8th March + 30 days is 8th April
No users were using Nostr on 8th April, as it is not 8th April yet, it is only 1st April
Therefore 30 day retention of that cohort is 0.
In a few days check back.
How I would read this is I would compare the curvature of the purple line (latest cohort) vs the curvature of the other lines, and try to infer what the retention curve is likely to look like for the cohort once complete.
As it has started higher than the other lines, it's possible that may continue. I'd be positive on it.
We out here
He posted antivax crap here and was lambasted for his stupidity. That doesn't happen on Twitter because he can simply block anyone that calls out his bullshit. He can't do that here on nostr. On Twitter, he gets sycophants praising him for his insights. On nostr, he gets called out for being a dumbass and there's nothing he can do about it.
That's why him and others like him will never be on nostr.
If they can't silence everyone that calls them out for lying like they can on Twitter, they are never going to use nostr.
Free speech to these grifters is they get to say anything they want and everyone else has to STFU.
There are quite a few anti-vaxxers on Nostr. The undeniable reality is that Ian quickly got 1.2 million followers on X, gets tens of thousands of likes per post (reach), participates in a global discussion on X—like Snowden—and only got a couple hundred likes or less here. Nostr and censorship-resistant free speech is a beautiful thing, but it's still small and niche, with the best data we have showing only around 16-17k daily trusted users posting notes.
primal data suggests at least 100k monthly actives fwiw
Good to know, thank you. What does it show, daily?
The pure fact that you can algo game other platforms to rapidly gain follows and hence monetise an account, while more decentralised platforms require nothing other than unadulterated hard work is most likely the cause.
The majority of people dont want to work on feed curation, that they outsource.
Effort = less users
Hmmm. Ok. Feels like they are all hiding somewhereor something. Lol.
10k
it is very puzzling and difficult to understand why fact and science flies past some people, and to their own hazard.
Are you up to date on your boosters?
Most lurk
🫂 Hopefully, this data will help users to be more active and keep spreading the word.
I think this is the reality for most larger influencers/creators. Censorship resistant free speech is great but that isn’t interesting enough for them with a much smaller reach. I think right now Nostr is great for the smaller niche communities. With control over your feed and no algorithms it can allow these to be seen without being drowned out by the large accounts.
Vaccines are for faggots
90/9/1 rule
90 percent of Internet users lurk, not posting or interacting.
9 percent post and interact with others and creators.
1 percent are creators.
Do you think this ratio applies to small numbers?
I would hope we have many lurkers. That’s also good.
Hard to tell without better analytics, but that will get better. Take a note I posted earlier today for example.
4 comments, 19 reacts, 5 zaps for 147 sats.
Here are the analytics from nostr.build
It seems fair to say some people are lurking. I have 4000 follows on nostr.band, those numbers are obviously inflated. Npub.world reports 3000, which I still think is inflated. This image had ~600 views, and say 20-25 people interacted with it.
Nostr is niche. Niche is where the value is. No mass market appeal: no burning need of the masses met yet. No killer app yet. When it happens it will grow exponentially... and people will complain about that too, haha.
It looks like retention % is growing? Or is that just a function of the lower overall posting trend? Anyway it looks like steady linear growth. A steady fraction of the population coming and staying.
Yeah Ian was here for like 2 days then never came back
He posted a video trying to explain why he thinks USA should invade and occupy Gaza..
I don't recall him posting anything about vaccines but I do remember that a lot of people were upset with the stupid promotion of trump Gaza retardation.
Actually that's the same reason he fell off on tiktok and isn't on rednote and his just a Twitter fag now and everyone keeps calling him a CIA asset used to create division online.
But yeah I honestly don't even remember him mentioning vaccines
A social network without followers or friends tends to be less appealing. Most people have their established networks and quickly lose interest in promoting their presence on new platforms. This is also evident with BlueSky, where many accounts remain inactive
So our numbers of 16k DAU and 42k WAU are close in line with Primal's 10k DAU and 100k MAU. Anecdotal data I remember from Amethyst and Damus is in line too. There's no magic behind these numbers, Nostr data is open. It is what it is.
And what keeps it afloat for those 10-15 years? Are you paying your annual share of the costs of this thing we're using? I certainly am not. Each of us would probably be need to be paying on avg. over $1,000 per year at current investment in salaries and infra vs. number of active users, and given the quality of the experience we now enjoy (rate of development, etc.).
A little urgency is in order I think. Let's figure out how more teams can build profitable growing businesses on this thing in a hurry.
BlueSky usage is trending down past couple months as well. Reddit is growing quite well.
👏
I do give money to devs and relay operators. My past notes make it clear that I think Nostr will need to be commercialized at some point soon. Nostr isn't just a single thing. Early internet users didn't need to pay a specific amount of money annually for it to survive and thrive. The market and commercialization handled that.
That's fair enough. What are your thoughts on how it ought to be commercialised and soon? Any dark-horse business models you've come across?
It's only been around about three years. But I think the network and clients will need to attract people with large communities outside of Bitcoin and Nostr for one. Something many current users prefer to have their heads in the sand about (because they're all mostly Bitcoin and Nostr community members). Security and on boarding still need improvement. People can commercialize it however they wish using any business model (assuming they follow the source licensing requirements for whatever they're using). It doesn't matter what I or anyone else thinks. That's the whole point. But products built around Nostr will probably be a good angle. People don't necessarily need to know what Nostr is. Most won't care.
Fixed
*B*ERzurkR*****
bot thotz % +/- NA a *Bitch 'O'r judgement JUST curiositEE/ya
Then why should I care if nostr is plateauing? My friends are still here, and they don't care about plateaus 😁 Free yourself from central metrics.
I care because of Metcalfe's law, and I care because I want more/most people to use non-captured networks. That's why I think diagnosing stagnant growth (and identifying bottlenecks) is important. But I'm glad you're satisfied with #nostr as it is.
Thank you for confirming and for all you do to help grow Nostr. These numbers align with my understanding and the testing I've conducted over the years. Accurate data is important not only for measuring growth but also for assessing the overall health of the ecosystem.
Thank you. Reposting with the correct retention data.
I don't need a chart to tell me that Nostr is not growing and most likely is contracting.
I don't hear a lot of new voices and it's not surprising or really a big mystery.
No one has ever heard of it. No press. New users show up to a empty feed and a hellscape of a universal feed. If they do find real people they are all talking about nerd stuff or inside jokes. They notice the glitches and bugs that we don't even see anymore because we are used to them.
Elon has done a superb job turning X into a hell scape and running off most non- influencers which should have given Nostr a huge boost but most people went to blue sky or threads or reddit.
It's a huge opportunity as far as I can see it.
Make a reliable client and a server to host videos.
Biggest issue I can see with nostr preventing it from getting traction is limited space for users to upload videos.
like of someone wanted to make a lot of money they'd just make a tiktok clone for nostr with a simple algorithm.
The trending feeds are garbage on all the clients and when people first sign up their feed is completely empty except for the global/trending etc garbage.
Like primals trending feed is all just shirtless wallstreet bros and bots trying to scam people.
Amethyst trending feed is full of porn that nobody is even reacting to, why is there porn with no replies no zaps no reactions being pushed on the global trending feed?
Just one client that actually works with a video feed and a simple algorithm for suggesting videos without following the accounts.
Every single content creator from tiktok would be posting on nostr instead of we had something like that.
Tiktok has been turned into absolute garbage now it's such a huge opportunity for other social media
Well, on the bright side, retention is not yet statistically-relevant, but it's now slightly-above, slightly above zero.
Well, who pays to host the videos? They eat up storage space and bandwidth.
Self-hosting seems to be the answer I always receive, but that just shifts the cost and effort to the person posting, which greatly raises the friction to post.
There's a reason why the companies behind this stuff are worth billions of dollars: they own and run gigantic server farms.
Anything involving free computation and data transfer is a fairytale and probably run by the CIA. Just saying.
Fuck em. Accelerate.
feels like early #Bitcoin vibes
Mempool empty, no one has heard of it, no press, nerds, everyone using PayPal instead
